建设正当时

任何一个优秀的国际投资银行家都知道四月底不是一个叫卖服务的好时候。因为这时正好是世界各国的财长们结束了在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织的各项会议返回本国的时候。此时的他们都对全球经济的风险可能蔓延到自家后院而忧心忡忡,正忙着抚慰自己备受折磨的心灵,所以无暇考虑为新的国际债券发行而付出巨额的费用。谁愿意在一场金融危机迫在眉睫的情况下举债呢?还不如继续囤积短期美国国库券,尽管其回报远低于其他大多数的投资项目。

果真如此吗?随着当今的全球经济进入中可持续和愈渐平衡的增长态势,是不是到了考虑上升风险的时候了?具体而言,各国政府,特别是那些正在无休止地增加美元储备的政府是否应该转而考虑如何修建道路、桥梁、港口、电网和其他基础设施了?尤其对于那些还没有分享到当今经济繁荣的较贫困地区,是否到了应该为未来的可持续发展奠定基础的时候了?

不要误解我的意思,我并不是在提倡财政挥霍。但过去几年以来,风险的平衡发生了转变。是的,在未来的三至五年内,很可能会发生另一次全球性的经济衰退。对,很可能还会有一场金融危机在中欧突然爆发。中欧现在的情形和1997年金融危机前的亚洲非常相似。最近冰岛的巨额贸易赤字和巴西新任财政部长所引发的波澜,触动了世界的敏感神经,并提醒全球投资家们:虽然有很多新兴市场正逐渐向投资级的地位迈进,但大多数却仍然长路漫漫。

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