Historia de dos zonas monetarias

PALO ALTO – Los Estados Unidos y Europa son dos áreas de libre comercio enormes, son ricas pero tienen serios problemas de corto plazo y enormes desafíos de largo plazo. También son dos zonas de una moneda única: el dólar; y en gran parte de Europa, el euro. Los retos que ambas regiones encaran son monumentales.

Sin embargo, solamente la unión monetaria de Europa se enfrenta a un periodo de incertidumbre sobre su futuro. Los Estados Unidos no atraviesan una crisis existencial de su moneda. Las diferencias y similitudes de las dos potencias económicas, en particular respecto a la movilidad laboral interna, la productividad y las políticas fiscales, sugieren y ofrecen algunas respuestas sobre la posibilidad de que la eurozona sobreviva la crisis en su periferia y evolucione en una zona de moneda única estable.

La movilidad laboral de las zonas más pobres a las más ricas sirve de amortiguador para lidiar con el diferencial de las dificultades económicas. El otro amortiguador natural es una moneda que se deprecia, lo que aumenta la competitividad en la zona más golpeada. Esto no puede suceder con una moneda común, y el ajuste económico es doblemente difícil  cuando no hay la suficiente movilidad de mano de obra para contribuir a mitigar las contracciones regionales en el ingreso y el desempleo.

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