برنامج بديل لمنطقة اليورو

شيكاغو ــ تُرى إلى أي حال قد تنتهي أزمة منطقة اليورو في الأسابيع القليلة المقبلة؟ بقليل من الحظ قد تحظى إيطاليا قريباً بحكومة وطنية جديرة بالثقة، وفي شهر نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني سوف تحظى أسبانيا بحكومة جديدة تتمتع بصلاحيات تسمح لها بالتغيير، وسوف تبذل اليونان القدر الكافي من الجهود لتجنب تعكير صفو الأسواق. ولكن من غير الجائز أن نعتمد على أي من هذا.

ماذا يتعين علينا أن نفعل إذن؟ أولا، لابد من إعادة رسملة بنوك منطقة اليورو. وثانيا، لابد من إتاحة التمويل الكافي لتلبية احتياجات إيطاليا وأسبانيا على مدى العام المقبل أو نحو ذلك إذا نضب معين البلدين فيما يتصل بقدرتهما على الوصول إلى الأسواق. وثالثا، لابد من التعامل مع اليونان، الدولة الأكثر مرضاً في أوروبا، على النحو الذي يمنع انتشار العدوى إلى دول أخرى على أطراف منطقة اليورو.

وكل هذا يحتاج إلى تمويل ــ فقد تحتاج إعادة رسملة البنوك وحدها إلى مئات المليارات من اليورو (ولو أن هذه الاحتياجات يمكن تخفيفها بعض الشيء لو بدت الديون السيادية المستحقة على الدول الكبرى في منطقة اليورو أكثر صحة).

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