德国的选择

法兰克福—欧元危机已经让欧盟从平等国家的自愿结盟转变为难以摆脱的债权-债务关系。如果有成员国退出联盟,则债权国将蒙受巨大损失,而债务国饱受深化其萧条、放大其债务负担、永久化其附庸地位的政策困扰。结果,如今危机已开始威胁欧盟本身的生存。这将是一场历史悲剧,只有在德国的领导下才能避免。

如果你不理解欧元的致命缺陷,就无法弄清这场危机的真正源头:通过设立独立央行,成员国背上了以它们无法控制的货币计价的债务。一开始,当局和市场参与者将所有政府债务一律视为无风险,这造成了不正确的激励,银行囤积了大量疲软国债券。当希腊危机放出了违约幽灵时,金融市场开始了报复,把所有重债欧元区成员国打入了第三世界,认为它们与在外币债务中越陷越深的国家无异。紧接着,重债成员国又被要求为自己的不幸承担所有责任,而欧元的结构性缺陷并没有得到纠正。

一旦明白了这一点,解决方案也就自动水落石出了。一言以蔽之,就是欧元债券。

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