俄罗斯春天?

巴黎——俄罗斯不是埃及。俄罗斯并不像一年前的开罗那样处在革命的爆发的前夕。事实上,俄罗斯政府拥有大量可支配财产,而埃及前总统穆巴拉克政权不具有这样雄厚的资产实力。

俄罗斯是一个能源超级大国。至少在某种来说,俄罗斯可以开启其“保险箱”去缓解国家最近伪造司法选举结果而使其公民所遭受到的羞辱感。而且,并不是所有的俄罗斯人都上街示威游行。我们应该意识到“缩放效果”。是这一效果使许多人认为开罗的卡利尔广场聚集的年轻示威者能够代表整个埃及社会。他们并不能代表整个社会。埃及的农村人民很像俄罗斯的农村人民。他们比那些年轻的精英们要保守得多得多。那些年轻的精英们接住了社会媒体,通过抗议示威吸引住了全世界的注意力。

再者,穆巴拉克年事已高又体弱多病,已经不再受到人民的信赖。相比之下,普京身体健康,充满着活力和朝气。他任然可能会说服许多俄罗斯社会不同阶层的人民,而这些人主要在乎的是国家的荣誉而并非其公民的幸福。

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