Gestärkte Beziehung durch Krise

NEW YORK – In den letzten Jahren haben die Schwellenländer mit aufstrebenden Märkten, unter anderen die in Asien, imposante Fortschritte bei der Kräftigung ihrer Fundamentalwerte, der Beschleunigung ihres Wirtschaftswachstums und der Polsterung gegen exogene Schocks gemacht. Trotzdem sind die aufstrebenden Märkte, wie die Ereignisse der letzten Monate gezeigt haben, nicht immun gegen den aktuellen Ausbruch globaler Finanzturbulenzen.

Vor allem die Verringerung der globalen wirtschaftlichen Nachfrage stellt viele asiatische Volkswirtschaften vor beängstigende Herausforderungen, insbesondere diejenigen, die stärker auf Wachstum durch Exporte angewiesen sind. Obwohl die meisten asiatischen Länder Vermögenswerten mit Hypothekenbezug nur in relativ eingeschränktem Maße direkt ausgesetzt waren, haben die Verringerung des Verschuldungsgrades der ausländischen Investoren und die geringere externe Nachfrage gleichzeitig strengere Kreditbedingungen und niedrigere Wachstumserwartungen geschaffen. Dies hat zu einer erhöhten Volatilität auf den Eigenkapital-, Geld- und Schuldenmärkten geführt.

Die Entwicklungen haben der Vorstellung der „Entkoppelung“ ein Ende bereitet, der Idee, dass das Wirtschaftswachstum in aufstrebenden Märkten (ob in Asien oder anderswo) unabhängig von dem in den Industrieländern wäre. Wie die aktuelle Krise schmerzlich verdeutlicht sind unsere Wirtschafträume – und unser Wohlstand – in dieser Zeit des globalen Handels und der weltweiten Investitionen untrennbar miteinander verbunden. Um das starke Wirtschaftswachstum in Amerika aufrechtzuerhalten, brauchen wir ein starkes, wachsendes Asien, genau wie Asiens Erfolg vom Florieren der USA abhängt.

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