الأزمة وتعزيز العلاقات

نيويورك ـ في السنوات الأخيرة، قطعت الأسواق الناشئة، بما في ذلك أسواق آسيا، خطوات واسعة في مجال تعزيز الأساسيات، فعجلت بنموها الاقتصادي وخففت عن نفسها الصدمات الخارجية. ولكن كما أظهرت الأحداث التي وقعت أثناء الأشهر الأخيرة فإن الأسواق الناشئة ليست محصنة ضد الموجة الحالية من الاضطرابات المالية العالمية.

وتباطؤ الطلب الاقتصادي العالمي بوجه خاص يفرض تحديات هائلة على اقتصاد العديد من بلدان آسيا، وخاصة تلك الأكثر اعتماداً على النمو القائم على التصدير. ورغم أن أغلب بلدان آسيا لم تتعرض إلا بقدر محدود نسبياً للأصول المرتبطة بالرهن العقاري، إلا أن حل الروافع المالية من جانب المستثمرين الأجانب وتباطؤ الطلب الخارجي في نفس الوقت من الأسباب التي أدت إلى انخفاض توقعات النمو وخلق ظروف ائتمان أشد إحكاماً. الأمر الذي أدى بالتالي إلى تعاظم التقلبات في أسواق الأسهم والمال والديون.

ولقد وضعت هذه التطورات حداً لفكرة "الانفصال" التي اقترحت أن النمو الاقتصادي في الأسواق الناشئة، سواء في آسيا أو غيرها، مستقل عن النمو الاقتصادي في بلدان العالم المتقدم. ولكن كما أوضحت الأزمة الحالية على نحو مؤلم فإن ظروفنا الاقتصادية ـ ورخاءنا ـ ترتبط ارتباطاً لا ينفصم في هذه الحقبة من التجارة العالمية والاستثمار العالمي. ومن أجل الحفاظ على النمو الاقتصادي القوي في الولايات المتحدة فإننا في احتياج إلى آسيا قوية ونامية، تماماً كما يعتمد نجاح آسيا على ازدهار الولايات المتحدة.

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