هل نحن مقدمون على فترة من ازدهار الإنتاجية؟

بيركلي ـ إن الركود المزدوج أمر بالغ السوء، ولكن العقد المفقود أمر أشد شرا. وفي الولايات المتحدة هناك مخاوف متعاظمة من أن تكون أسوأ أزمة ركود تشهدها الولايات المتحدة منذ أزمة الكساد الأعظم قد ألحقت الضرر بقدرة الاقتصاد على النمو.

وهناك أسباب وجيهة في واقع الأمر للخشية من استسلام الولايات المتحدة وغيرها من البلدان المتقدمة الآن لفترة مطولة من النمو المتدني. فبعد احتراق البنوك بنار الأزمة بادرت إلى إحكام معايير الإقراض، ومن المرجح أن تخضع الآن لمتطلبات أشد صرامة فيما يتصل برأس المال والسيولة. ونتيجة لهذا فإن الحصول على الائتمان المصرفي سوف يكون أكثر صعوبة.

والواقع أن العرض المحدود من الائتمان المصرفي يعني ارتفاع تكاليف رأس المال، وهذا يعني بدوره أن الشركات الصغيرة والمتوسطة الحجم ـ التي تشكل المصدر الأكثر أهمية للإبداع ونمو معدلات تشغيل العمالة ـ سوف تكون الأكثر عُرضة للتأثيرات الحادة.

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