Un mundo cargado de riesgos después de la crisis

MILÁN – La característica más llamativa de la economía global en la actualidad es la magnitud y la interconexión de los riesgos macroeconómicos que afronta. El período posterior a la crisis ha producido un mundo con múltiples velocidades, cuando las más importantes economías avanzadas –con la notable excepción de Alemania– lidian con un crecimiento escaso y un gran desempleo, mientras que las principales economías con mercados en ascenso (el Brasil, China, la India, Indonesia y Rusia) han recuperado los niveles de crecimiento anteriores a la crisis.

Esa divergencia se refleja en las finanzas públicas. Las proporciones deuda-PIB de las economías en ascenso están reduciéndose hasta el nivel del 40 por ciento, mientras que las de las economías avanzadas están acercándose al del ciento por ciento, por término medio. Ni Europa ni los Estados Unidos han preparado planes creíbles a medio plazo para estabilizar sus posiciones fiscales. La inestabilidad del tipo de cambio euro-dólar refleja la incertidumbre sobre cuál lado del Atlántico afrontará riesgos mayores.

En Europa, la consecuencia de ello han sido varias rebajas de la calificación de la deuda soberana de los países que tienen una situación más difícil, acompañadas de episodios de contagio que han afectado al euro. Parece probable que se repitan.

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