Les risques de l'après-crise

MILAN – La caractéristique la plus frappante de l'économie mondiale est l'interdépendance et l'échelle des risques auxquels elle est confrontée aujourd'hui. La post-crise a engendré un monde à plusieurs vitesses. Les  principaux pays avancés (à l'exception notable de l'Allemagne) sont confrontés à une faible croissance et à un chômage élevé, tandis que les pays émergents (le Brésil, la Chine, l'Inde, l'Indonésie et la Russie) ont retrouvé le niveau de croissance qu'ils avaient avant la crise.

Cette divergence apparaît dans les finances publiques. Le rapport dette/PIB des pays émergents diminue pour se rapprocher de 40%, tandis que celui des pays avancés est à la hausse et tend vers 100%. Ni l'Europe ni les USA n'ont de plan crédible pour stabiliser leur position budgétaire à moyen terme. La volatilité du taux de change euro-dollar traduit la difficulté qu'il y a à déterminer quel coté de l'Atlantique est le plus exposé aux risques.

En Europe, cela s'est traduit par une baisse de la notation de la dette souveraine des pays les plus en difficulté, ainsi que par une contagion non encore maîtrisée qui pourrait affecter l'euro. En ce qui concerne les USA, l'agence de notation Moody a récemment indiqué que la dette souveraine du pays pourrait devenir un problème grave en raison du manque de volonté du Congrès de relever le plafond de la dette alors que le déficit fait l'objet d'une polémique enflammée. Ces deux problèmes - le plafond de la dette et un plan efficace de réduction de la dette - ne sont pas résolus.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/BMoKDtd/fr;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.