Les risques de l'après-crise

MILAN – La caractéristique la plus frappante de l'économie mondiale est l'interdépendance et l'échelle des risques auxquels elle est confrontée aujourd'hui. La post-crise a engendré un monde à plusieurs vitesses. Les  principaux pays avancés (à l'exception notable de l'Allemagne) sont confrontés à une faible croissance et à un chômage élevé, tandis que les pays émergents (le Brésil, la Chine, l'Inde, l'Indonésie et la Russie) ont retrouvé le niveau de croissance qu'ils avaient avant la crise.

Cette divergence apparaît dans les finances publiques. Le rapport dette/PIB des pays émergents diminue pour se rapprocher de 40%, tandis que celui des pays avancés est à la hausse et tend vers 100%. Ni l'Europe ni les USA n'ont de plan crédible pour stabiliser leur position budgétaire à moyen terme. La volatilité du taux de change euro-dollar traduit la difficulté qu'il y a à déterminer quel coté de l'Atlantique est le plus exposé aux risques.

En Europe, cela s'est traduit par une baisse de la notation de la dette souveraine des pays les plus en difficulté, ainsi que par une contagion non encore maîtrisée qui pourrait affecter l'euro. En ce qui concerne les USA, l'agence de notation Moody a récemment indiqué que la dette souveraine du pays pourrait devenir un problème grave en raison du manque de volonté du Congrès de relever le plafond de la dette alors que le déficit fait l'objet d'une polémique enflammée. Ces deux problèmes - le plafond de la dette et un plan efficace de réduction de la dette - ne sont pas résolus.

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