Призрачное восстановление?

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Куда идет американская и глобальная экономика? В прошлом году было два взгляда на этот вопрос. Одна сторона доказывала, что рецессия в США будет иметь форму V – короткую и неглубокую. Она продлится только восемь месяцев, как две предыдущие рецессии 1990-1991 годов и 2001 года, и мир не будет связан со спадом в США.

Другие, включая меня, доказывали, что, учитывая излишнее злоупотребление заемными средствами в частном секторе (в домашних хозяйствах, финансовых институтах и корпоративных фирмах), этот спад будет иметь форму U – длинную и глубокую. Он продлится около 24 месяцев, и мировая экономика будет связана со спадом в США.

Сегодня, спустя 20 месяцев рецессии в США, которая стала глобальной летом 2008 года и затронула широкие массы, разговор о форме V и изолированности уже не уместен. Это самая сильная рецессия в США и во всем мире за последние 60 лет. Если рецессия в США, что наиболее вероятно, закончится в конце этого года, то, по-видимому, она будет в три раза дольше и в пять раз глубже с точки зрения совокупного спада в производстве по сравнению с предыдущими двумя рецессиями.

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