Добрососедский вариант для Ирана

ЕРЕВАН – В очередной раз всплыла проблема бомбардировки или введения санкций против Ирана. В течение нескольких лет дискуссии относительно действий в отношении Ирана колебались между двумя плохими альтернативами. Некоторые убеждены, что ядерный Иран – это худший из всех возможных сценариев, и даже более плохой, чем побочный эффект от превентивного удара. Однако ни ядерный Иран, ни воздушные удары против него, в этом регионе, конечно же, не являются разумными вариантами. 

Последствия бомбардировки Ирана можно четко себе представить: закрытие проливов Хормуз, взлет цен на нефть, возможные ответные меры по отношению к Израилю (независимо от происхождения нападения), и еще большие беспорядки в Ираке и Афганистане. В самом деле, единственное, что без сомнения последует за любым превентивным ударом - это непоправимое и продолжительное нарушение региональной безопасности, а также политической и экономической стабильности.

Альтернатива, конечно, не намного безопаснее. Ядерный Иран изменил бы безопасную обстановку во всем регионе, и, учитывая вражду между Израилем и Ираном, две подобные ядерные державы, столкнувшись лицом к лицу, представляли бы собой угрозу.

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