Eine nachbarschaftliche Option für den Iran

JEREWAN – Wieder einmal wird das Thema diskutiert, ob man den Iran bombardieren oder sanktionieren soll. Seit Jahren pendelt die Debatte um den Iran zwischen zwei schlechten Alternativen. Einige sind davon überzeugt, dass ein Iran mit Atomwaffen das schlimmste aller Szenarien wäre, schlimmer noch als der radioaktive Niederschlag eines Präventivschlags. Doch stellen weder ein Iran mit Atomwaffen noch Luftangriffe gegen diesen kluge Optionen dar, gewiss nicht für diese Region.

Die Auswirkungen einer Bombardierung des Irans sollten klar sein: Schließung der Straße von Hormus, in die Höhe schnellende Ölpreise, mögliche Vergeltungsschläge gegen Israel (unabhängig davon, von wem der Angriff ausging) und noch größerer Aufruhr im Irak und in Afghanistan. Die einzige Gewissheit eines Präventivschlags ist eine irreparable und langfristige Beschädigung der regionalen Sicherheit und der politischen wie wirtschaftlichen Stabilität.

Natürlich ist die Alternative nicht sicherer. Ein mit Atomwaffen ausgestatteter Iran würde die Sicherheitslage der gesamten Region verändern, und angesichts der Feindschaft zwischen Israel und dem Iran würden zwei dieser Atommächte, die einander gegenüberstehen, eine Gefahr darstellen.

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