Le choix d’aller vers l’Iran

EREVAN – Voilà que se pose à nouveau la question de bombarder ou de sanctionner l’Iran. Cela fait des années que le débat sur l’Iran oscille entre deux mauvaises alternatives. Certains sont convaincus qu’un Iran nucléaire est le pire de tous les scénarios possibles, pire encore que les répercussions d’une frappe préventive. Mais ni un Iran nucléaire, ni des frappes aériennes pour l’en empêcher ne sont des choix raisonnables, certainement pas pour cette région.

Les répercussions d’un bombardement de l’Iran doivent être claires : fermeture du détroit d’Hormuz, flambée des cours du pétrole, éventuelles représailles contre Israël (quelles que soient les origines de l’attaque), et des troubles encore plus grands en Irak et en Afghanistan. En bref, la seule certitude des conséquences d’une frappe préventive est un dégât irréparable et durable à la sécurité régionale et à la stabilité politique et économique.

Naturellement, l’alternative n’est pas plus sûre. Un Iran doté de l’arme nucléaire modifierait tout l’environnement sécuritaire de la région, et, étant donné l’hostilité entre Israël et l’Iran, deux telles puissances nucléaires en face l’une de l’autre représenteraient une menace.

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