China wächst zurück

HONGKONG – Über drei Jahrzehnte lang wuchs Chinas BIP durchschnittlich über 10% im Jahr. Aber der ehemalige Ministerpräsident Wen Jiabao beschrieb diese eindrucksvolle Wachstumsdynamik treffend als „instabil, unbalanciert, unkoordiniert und nicht nachhaltig“ und betonte die hohen wirtschaftlichen, sozialen und umweltpolitischen Kosten, von denen es begleitet wurde. Heute muss China zwischen dem export- und investitionsgetriebenen Wachstumsmodell der Vergangenheit und einer neuen, angemesseneren Wirtschaftsordnung wählen.

Billige Kredite und perverse Anreize – wie die Beförderungen von Beamten, die am meisten zum BIP-Wachstum beitrugen – führten zu enorm hohen, aber redundanten Investitionen, die wiederum zu Überkapazitäten in Produktion und Infrastruktur beitrugen. Dieses Modell ist nicht nur ineffizient, sondern der Einsatz von Regierungsressourcen zur Unterstützung von Investitionen unterminiert auch Chinas soziale Entwicklung.

Daher hat Chinas Führung entschieden, nicht weiterhin das BIP-Wachstum als Hauptkriterium zur Bewertung der Leistung von Staatsdienern zu verwenden. Tatsächlich sieht der zwölfte Fünfjahresplan, der bis 2015 gilt, vor, Chinas Wirtschaft auf ein neues, nachhaltigeres Wachstumsmodell umzustellen, das auf Qualität und Innovationen beruht. Dafür wird in Kauf genommen, dass das jährliche Wirtschaftswachstum in der Übergangsphase wahrscheinlich auf 7% zurückgeht.

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