El tenue destello de Alemania en medio del auge económico global

En 2004, la economía mundial creció a una tasa de 5,1%, el ritmo más rápido en los últimos 28 años. Si bien el indicador del Clima Económico Mundial del Ifo, generado a partir de encuestas trimestrales a 1.200 expertos en 90 países, empeoró ligeramente en los primeros tres trimestres de 2005, aumentó nuevamente en el último, indicando una continuación del “boom”. En 2005, se estima que el crecimiento fue de cerca de un 4,3%, y se puede esperar un índice similar en 2006, lo que marcaría un periodo de rápido y sostenido crecimiento global no visto desde la década de los 70.

Sin embargo, el auge no es uniforme. En los Estados Unidos, bajó la cantidad de expertos que dan una evaluación favorable de la actual situación; de hecho, una mayoría cree que la situación económica empeorará durante los próximos seis meses. No obstante, en los países asiáticos, incluida China, el optimismo es imbatible. Lo mismo es cierto en el caso de Europa del Este, los ex estados soviéticos, y América Latina.

La gran sorpresa es Europa, que a diferencia de 2004 y la primera mitad de 2005, ahora parece estar alcanzando el ritmo del resto del mundo. Si bien en 2005 el crecimiento de los 15 miembros “antiguos” de la Unión Europea fue un miserable 1,5%, el Ifo espera que el crecimiento de estos estados se acelere a un 2,1% en 2006.

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