全球经济繁荣中的德国曙光

2004年,世界经济增长5.1%,为过去28年中最快。Ifo的世界经济景气指标来源于对90个国家的1200名专家进行季度调查。尽管这一指标在2005年的头三个季度稍微有所恶化,但是在最后一个季度中再次上升。这表明,繁荣在延续。2005年,预计增长大约4.3%,预计2006年也会有类似的增长率。这将是自上世纪七十年代以来所没有出现的全球经济快速持续增长的时期。

但是,这一繁荣并不平衡。在美国,对现状作出有利评估的专家人数有所下降。实际上,大多数人认为经济形势在以后6个月中将有所恶化。但是,包括中国在内的亚洲国家却都很乐观。东欧、前苏联国家以及拉丁美洲国家也是如此。

令人惊讶的是欧洲。与2004年很2005年上半年不同的是,欧洲看起来正在赶上世界其他地方。2005年15个“老”欧盟成员的增长率尽管只有可怜的1.5%,Ifo预计,欧盟15国在2006年的增长将会加快到2.1%。

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