Paul Lachine

Una recuperación global fallida

NEW HAVEN - La economía global se encuentra en medio de su segundo "pánico" del  crecimiento en menos de dos años. Tendremos que acostumbrarnos a ellos. En un mundo post-crisis, son claras señales de una recuperación fallida.

La razón es sencilla. El ciclo económico típico tiene un mecanismo de amortiguación natural que protege de golpes inesperados. Cuanto más profunda es la recesión, la reacción es más potente y mayores son las fuerzas acumuladas de recuperación autosostenible. Los rebotes vigorosos en forma de V poseen una resistencia interna que les permite hacer frente a los golpes con relativa facilidad.

Sin embargo, una recuperación post-crisis es un animal muy diferente. Como Carmen Reinhart y Kenneth Rogoff han demostrado en su libro Esta vez es diferente, en el largo recorrido de la historia las recuperaciones post-crisis en la producción y el empleo tienden a ser decididamente mediocres.

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