Paul Lachine

Провальное глобальное экономическое восстановление

НЬЮ-ХЕЙВЕН. Глобальная экономика находится в середине второго периода опасений по поводу экономического роста за период менее чем в два года.

Причина проста. Типичный бизнес-цикл имеет естественный амортизационный механизм, который отражает неожиданные удары. Чем глубже спад деловой активности, тем более мощное восстановление следует за ним и тем значительнее совокупные силы самовосстанавливающегося возрождения. Здоровые V-образные восстановления имеют встроенную эластичность, которая позволяет им справиться с потрясениями относительно легко.

Но посткризисное восстановление – совсем другое дело. Как Кармен Рейнхарт и Кеннет Рогофф показали в своей книге “В этот раз по-другому”, за продолжительный период истории посткризисные восстановления уровня производства и занятости населения имеют тенденцию быть не на должном уровне.

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