Paul Lachine

La reprise mondiale en danger

NEW HAVEN –Pour la deuxième fois en moins de deux ans, l'état de l'économie mondiale suscite les plus vives inquiétudes ; autant s'y habituer. Dans le monde d'après-crise cela traduit une reprise avortée.

La raison en est simple. Le cycle habituel des affaires comporte un mécanisme naturel qui permet d'amortir les chocs inattendus. Plus le ralentissement économique est prononcé, plus forts sont la reprise et les forces qui la sous-tendent. Une reprise marquée en forme de V se caractérise par une résilience intrinsèque qui lui permet d'absorber les chocs sans trop de difficulté. Mais la reprise qui suit une crise est un phénomène très différent. En général elle manque de vigueur, de même que la baisse du chômage, ainsi que le montrent Carmen Reinhart et Kenneth Rogoff  dans leur livre This Time is Different.

Ces reprises anémiques par définition ne bénéficient pas de l'effet d'amortissement des reprises en V. C'est pourquoi un choc exogène met en évidence leur vulnérabilité. Si elle est assez violente et touche une économie mondiale affaiblie dont le taux de croissance approche du niveau d'alerte (environ 3% de croissance annuelle), la rechute risque de se transformer en une récession à double creux tant redoutée.

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