¿Una receta holandesa para el Brasil?

El logrado regreso del Brasil a los mercados financieros al final de abril y el fortalecimiento de su divisa del país, el real, ha demostrado que la elección del Presidente Luiz Inázio da Silva (Lula) no ha provocado un desplome de la confianza extranjera. Pero no por ello los recientes acontecimientos positivos eliminan la necesidad de reformas económicas estructurales. Lula reconoce que los avances en ese sector, incluida la reforma del mercado laboral, son decisivos para que el Brasil logre un crecimiento suficiente que le permita aplicar su ambicioso programa social.

Para ello, revestirá importancia decisiva que Lula, antiguo trabajador del metal y fundador de la Central Única de los Trabajadores (CUT), que también representa a la mayoría de los trabajadores de la industria automovilística, logre mantener buenas relaciones con los sindicatos. Las recientes huelgas llevadas a cabo por trabajadores de la industria automovilística en las fábricas de General Motors, Renault, Volvo y Ford del Brasil no son un buen augurio. Las propuestas reformas de la seguridad social y la fiscalidad, presentadas al Congreso al final de abril, parecen estar creando una tensión suplementaria.

Lula debe mirar a Europa para ver ejemplos de consecución de niveles altos de crecimiento y creación de puestos de trabajo sin por ello dejar de mantener la protección social. Europa puede brindar también una hoja de ruta para los políticos decididos a pasar de izquierdistas en la oposición y enemigos del mercado a estadistas reformistas en el poder. Felipe González, de España, y Tony Blair, de Gran Bretaña, hicieron ese recorrido. Pero un ejemplo mejor puede ser el de Wim Kok, quien el año pasado abandonó el cargo de Primer Ministro de los Países Bajos, que había ocupado durante ocho años. Lula y Kok comparten la infrecuente distinción de haber llegado a jefes de gobierno después de haber sido dirigentes sindicales.

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