Dvojnásobná recese pro Spojené státy?

Loni v zimě se americká centrální banka, Federální rezervní úřad, pilně plácala po zádech. Zdálo se, že její snížení základních úrokových sazeb na 1,75 procenta za rok zapůsobilo: recese končila. Čekalo se, že navzdory vystřízlivěným očekáváním o dopadu technologické revoluce na produktivitu a zisky a obavám vyvolaným teroristickými útoky na Světové obchodní středisko, začnou americké podniky brzy zase výrazně investovat, neboť půjčování za 1,75procentní úrok se nedá jen tak lehce odolat.

Na konci jara, souběžně s pádem Enronu, WorldComu a Arthura Andersena, se tato očekávání zhroutila. Najednou všichni začali pochybovat o poctivosti účetnictví amerických firem. Najednou všichni viděli jen to, nakolik od bubliny let devadesátých upadla v Americe kvalita dohledu nad podnikatelskými aktivitami.

Americký akciový trh se propadl o 15 až 20 procent pod úroveň ze zimy. Rozpětí mezi úrokovou sazbou, za kterou si mohla půjčovat americká vláda, a sazbami, za které si mohly půjčovat americké firmy, se zvětšovalo. Najednou si Fed přestala gratulovat: 1,75procentní úroková sazba je možná ta správná sazba na podporu zotavení ve chvíli, kdy Dow-Jonesův index dosahuje hodnoty 10 000 bodů, ale ne ve chvíli, kdy se stěží drží na hodnotě 8 500 bodů.

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