Une option de dévaluation pour l'Europe méridionale

Mar 1, 2012 Gita Gopinath , Oleg Itskhoki, Emmanuel Farhi

CAMBRIDGE - Cette année est susceptible de marquer une épreuve décisive pour l'avenir de l'euro. La survie de la zone euro exige une solution crédible à sa longue crise de la dette souveraine, qui exige à son tour de résoudre les deux déséquilibres macro-économiques - externes et fiscaux - au cœur de cette crise.

La crise a révélé que des disparités profondes dans la compétitivité se sont développées dans la zone euro. De 1996 à 2010, les coûts unitaires de main-d’œuvre ont augmenté d'à peine 8% en Allemagne et de 13% en France. Comparez cela à 24% au Portugal, à 35% en Espagne, à 37% en Italie et à un 59% en Grèce, qui bat tous les autres pays à plate couture. Il en a résulté de grands déséquilibres commerciaux entre les pays de la zone euro, un problème compliqué par les grands déficits fiscaux et les niveaux élevés de dette publique en Europe méridionale (et France) - dus en grande partie aux créanciers étrangers.

La réduction de ces déséquilibres exige-t-elle une rupture avec la zone euro ? Supposez par exemple que le Portugal doive quitter l'euro et réintroduire l'escudo. La dévaluation du taux de change qui s'ensuivrait, abaisserait immédiatement le prix des exportations du Portugal, augmenterait ses prix à l'importation, stimulerait l'économie et provoquerait la croissance si nécessaire. Mais une sortie de l'euro serait une affaire désordonnée. L'agitation qui en résulterait pourrait très bien battre tous les gains à court terme dans la compétitivité due à la dévaluation.

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William Wallace Mar 2, 2012

Sounds doable in theory, but it depends on two unlikely factors. First, firms would need to immediately factor the labor savings into pre-tax price reductions, rather than increasing profits or decreasing losses. Secondly, given the unlikelihood of these price reductions, the impact on consumer spending of higher post-tax prices might decrease aggregate demand enough to offset the benefits of the policy.

I rather think a lot more focus on structural as opposed to cyclical deficits, and wider EU support for the latter while discouraging the former, would do a lot to put things on firmer footing, while sending a coherent message to the bond markets.
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Zsolt Hermann Mar 2, 2012

Zsolt 01:39 02 Mar 12

We can forgive economists that they view everything through the glasses of financial and economical adjustments, believing they can solve all our problems by pushing here, pulling there and then everything falls into place again.

The global crisis is much deeper than a simple economic problem, in truth the economy is just a superficial representation of how we humans relate to each other and the real crisis is there, within our attitude, relationship towards each other.

But even if stay within the realms of economy and finances all the recommended solutions take it for granted that the present costant growth, expansive economical system can carry on, and we just need to find our way back to the higway that leads us to sunset, when more and more experts, studies shows that this approach is unsustainable at our present conditions we evolved into.

Sooner or later we have to face the signs and the facts that we have to build a completely new human system from the ground up, starting with the most important components: human beings and how they connect to each other, how they view each other and cooperate with each other in the closed, interdependent, integral system of the 21st century.

Everything else is secondary and depends on the fundamental principle of the human network in between us.
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