Paul Lachine

¿Una cura para el fracaso fiscal?

CAMBRIDGE -- ¿Deberían más países crear consejos consultivos fiscales independientes para dar una mayor objetividad a los debates sobre el presupuesto nacional? El estafador encarcelado Bernie Madoff resumió recientemente muchas impresiones de los ciudadanos sobre la política fiscal, al declarar que “el gobierno en sí es un plan Ponzi”.

Tal vez se tratara simplemente de una confusión de los deseos con la realidad por parte de un hombre que morirá en la cárcel después de que en 2008 se desplomara  su plan piramidal sin precedentes de 50.000 millones de dólares. Personalmente, sospecho que el nada envidiable puesto de Madoff en los libros que recogen las plusmarcas estará asegurado durante una buena temporada. Aun así, en vista de que muchos de los gobiernos del mundo afrontan una combinación letal de deuda tradicional insostenible, obligaciones en materia de pensiones de jubilación sin precedentes y una reducción del crecimiento, no podemos por menos de peguntarnos qué es el plan fiscal.

En un nuevo artículo, “A Decade of Debt” (“Un decenio de deuda”), Carmen M. Reinhart y yo mostramos que la deuda general del Gobierno de los Estados Unidos, incluidas la federal, la estatal y la local, ya ha superado la plusmarca del 120 por ciento del PIB alcanzada al final de la segunda guerra mundial.

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