Paul Lachine

La nouvelle orientation de l’économie mondiale

WASHINGTON, DC – Le monde qui nous entoure évolue dans un état de changement constant, c’est une réalité. Ce qui est nouveau, en revanche, c’est que les tendances économiques récentes suggèrent qu’un changement d’orientation fondamental des choses pourrait bien s’opérer.

Prenons l’exemple des économies développées. Au cours des vingt dernières années, la croissance économique de ces pays a été alimentée par la consommation – tant et si bien que l’activité économique de ces pays a basculé de l’investissement vers la consommation, au total à hauteur de 10 points de pourcentage du PIB. Ainsi, en 2010, la part de la consommation dans leur PIB avait atteint 81,6%.

1990

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2010

(en pourcentage du PIB)

Économies développées

Consommation

76,4

81,6

Investissement

23,7

18,4

Économies émergentes et en voie de développement

Consommation

73,4

67,1

Investissement

26,0

30,8

Dans le même temps, les marchés émergents et les économies en développement ont renvoyé une image presque miroir de cette tendance, accroissant leur investissement et boostant la fourniture de marchandises au reste du monde au détriment de la consommation dans leur propre pays. En 2010, la part de la consommation dans leur PIB était passée de 73,4% à 67,1%.

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