Paul Lachine

Uno sguardo attento sugli squilibri sino-americani

PECHINO – Prima del luglio 2007, la maggior parte degli economisti si trovava d’accordo sul fatto che gli squilibri globali fossero la minaccia peggiore per la crescita mondiale. Il crescente rapporto debito estero/Pil degli Stati Uniti – il risultato dei cronici deficit delle partite correnti – avrebbe posto un duro freno agli afflussi di capitale, che a sua volta avrebbe indebolito il dollaro, spingendo al rialzo i tassi di interesse e gettando l’economia americana nella crisi.

Ma non fu questo lo scenario che si materializzò. Al contrario, la crisi ebbe origine dalla débâcle dei mutui sub-prime americani, che trascinò rapidamente l’economia globale nella più profonda recessione dagli anni 30.

La maggior parte degli economisti non riuscì a prevedere le dinamiche economiche che condussero davvero alla crisi, perché non prestò sufficiente attenzione al rapido incremento del debito complessivo americano. Gli economisti ci concentravano, infatti, esclusivamente sul debito estero americano, ignorando il debito delle famiglie (mutui e credito al consumo), il debito delle amministrazioni pubbliche, il debito delle imprese e il debito delle istituzioni finanziarie.

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