Paul Lachine

Eine ausgeglichene Betrachtung der chinesisch-amerikanischen Ungleichgewichte

PEKING – Bis zum Juli 2007 waren sich die meisten Ökonomen einig, dass die globalen Ungleichgewichte die größte Gefahr für das globale Wachstum darstellten. Es wurde behauptet, dass die steigende Netto-Auslandsschuldenquote der Vereinigten Staaten – das Ergebnis chronischer Leistungsbilanzdefizite – die Kapitalzuflüsse stark drosseln würde, was wiederum den Dollar schwächen, die Zinssätze in die Höhe treiben und die US-Wirtschaft in die Krise stürzen würde.

Doch hat sich dieses Szenario nicht bewahrheitet. Stattdessen ist die Krise auf das US-Hypothekendebakel zurückzuführen, das die Weltwirtschaft rasch in die tiefste Rezession seit den 1930er Jahren hinabzog.

Die meisten Ökonomen haben die wirtschaftliche Dynamik, die tatsächlich zur Krise führte, nicht vorhergesehen, da sie die rasante Zunahme der US-Gesamtverschuldung nicht genug beachteten. Stattdessen konzentrierten sie sich ausschließlich auf die US-Auslandsschulden und ignorierten die private Verschuldung (Hypotheken- und Verbraucherschulden), öffentliche Schulden, Unternehmensschulden und Finanzschulden.

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