1929 oder 1989?

PARIS – Während sich die Wirtschaftskrise vertieft und ausweitet, ist die Welt auf der Suche nach historischen Analogien, die uns helfen sollen die Geschehnisse zu verstehen. Zu Beginn der Krise wurde sie von vielen mit 1982 oder 1973 verglichen, was beruhigend war, da sich beide Daten auf klassische zyklische Konjunkturabschwünge beziehen.

Heute ist die Stimmung wesentlich trostloser und Bezüge auf die Jahre 1929 und 1931 beginnen sichtbar zu werden, auch wenn einige Regierungen sich weiterhin so verhalten als sei die Krise eher klassisch als außergewöhnlich. Die Tendenz ist entweder eine übermäßige Zügelung (Europa) oder eine Streuung der Bemühungen (die Vereinigten Staaten). Europa ist zurückhaltend, um Schulden zu vermeiden und den Euro zu schützen, die USA hingegen haben an vielen Fronten Maßnahmen ergriffen, um die ideale Gelegenheit zur Durchführung dringend erforderlicher Strukturreformen nicht zu versäumen.

Geostrategen hingegen fällt sowohl in politischer als auch in wirtschaftlicher Hinsicht natürlich das Jahr 1989 ein. Der Niedergang der Investmentbank Lehman Brothers hat natürlich nichts mit dem Fall der Berliner Mauer zu tun. Oberflächlich scheint er sogar seine perfekte Antithese zu sein: Der Zusammenbruch einer Mauer, die Unterdrückung und künstliche Teilungen symbolisiert, im Vergleich zum Zusammenbruch einer scheinbar unzerstörbaren und beruhigenden Institution des Finanzkapitalismus.

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