Zlato za 10 000 dolarů?

SAN FRANCISCO – Vést racionální rozhovor o hodnotě zlata nikdy nebylo snadné. V poslední době, kdy se ceny zlata zvedly o více než 300% za deset let, je to ještě těžší. Loni v prosinci napsali kolegové-ekonomové Martin Feldstein a Nouriel Roubini komentáře, v nichž odvážně zpochybnili „býčí“ náladu na trhu a rozumně poukázali na rizika spojená se zlatem.

A co se nestalo? Od zveřejnění jejich článků se cena zlata vyšplhala ještě výše, a nedávno dokonce dosáhla rekordních 1300 dolarů. Už loni v prosinci přitom mnoho „zlatých nadšenců“ tvrdilo, že cena této komodity nevyhnutelně směřuje k hranici 2000 dolarů. A někteří z nich, osmělení jeho setrvalým zhodnocováním, dnes naznačují, že by zlato mohlo stát ještě více.

Jeden úspěšný investor do zlata mi nedávno vysvětloval, že ceny akcií více než deset let skomíraly a vzpamatovaly se až na počátku 80. let, kdy Dow Jonesův index překročil hranici 1000 bodů. Od té doby se index vyšplhal nad 10 000 bodů. Není tedy možné, že se také hodnota zlata, která se již přehoupla přes magickou hranici 1000 dolarů, desetinásobně zvýší?

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