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Is the US in Recession?

Do not be surprised if, later this month, there is a wave of headlines claiming that the US economy is in recession. But such an assessment would depend on a chain of reasoning that has three important flaws.

CAMBRIDGE – On July 28, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. The impending announcement has observers on the edge of their seats, with many expecting it to confirm that the US economy slid into recession in the first half of 2022. But even if the announcement seems to say that, the reality is more complicated.