Economics

الصين واختبار الجلسة المكتملة

Nov 7, 2013 Minxin Pei

طوكيو ــ هناك شيء غريب ومثير للانزعاج الشديد حول الرأي السائد بشأن الجلسة المكتملة الثالثة المقبلة للجنة المركزية الثامنة عشرة للحزب الشيوعي الصيني. فمع اقتراب الاجتماع الخاص في الفترة من التاسع إلى الثاني عشر من نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني، يبدو أن اهتمام المجتمع الدولي يتركز في الأساس على تغيرات السياسة التكنوقراطية التي تعتبر أساسية لإعادة هيكلة الاقتصاد الصيني التي تهيمن عليه الدولة وإعادة تنشيط النمو.

فهل تحرر الحكومة أسعار الفائدة أو تخفف الضوابط المفروضة على رأس المال؟ وكيف يمكن تجديد النظام الضريبي؟ وهل يكون إصلاح ملكية الأراضي جزءاً من الحزمة؟

الواقع أن قائمة مثل هذه الأسئلة طويلة للغاية. فخارج الصين يتلخص الرأي الغالب بين كبار رجال الأعمال في أن إدارة الرئيس الجديد شي جين بينج نجحت في تعزيز قوتها واكتساب القدر الكافي من السلطة للمضي قدماً في الإصلاحات الاقتصادية البعيدة المدى. ولا يحتاج هو وزملاؤه إلا إلى توظيف السياسات الصحيحة.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

Robert Wolff Nov 10, 2013

The Great Lamentation -

Apparently the Chinese are having the same 'Problem' as Americans.

The former US 'Establishment' as defined by the Republicans has already been defeated by the Unified Power of Washington and NYC.

I DO have a predictive handle on where America is going, based on the centralization of socio-economic control by Financial institutions and Washington working together to control the evolution of the American nation. Many books (see newly published “Dollarocracy”) are out now about the collusion of Washington Politics and New York Finance now resulting in a Unified Power that controls the nation for profit – no different than what multinationals have done in Africa and Asia – with less than no regard for their impact on local populations. The fundamental political dynamic in America is now the Juggernaut of the centrally controlled Unified Power against the hopeless resistance of locales it decides to take over and dominate for the benefit of those in power who operate from remote locations of power (NYC, Washington).

The socio-economic evolution to centrally controlled commerce and law that supports its dominance has eliminated the democratic forces of community based socio-economies. Communities are now exploited from afar for profits for the benefits of a few who control the political/financial Unified Power that profits from them.

We ARE experiencing the same phenomenon the Pashtuns in Waziristan suffered under the rule of the Pakistani Elites. In the final hour it resulted in the organization and rise of the militant Taliban and ultimately Al Qaeda – and the elimination of the Pakistani Elites from power in favor of a fervish attempt to restore a democracy that can settle the ongoing military conflicts and political assassinations in Pakistan. Drone strikes on Taliban leaders inside Pakistan by the US are the condoning expression of not only the tactics and strategies of the former Elites of Pakistan, but taking up the same sword by the US since the Elites have been eliminated – exactly the same motive that got US into Vietnam when the French gave up the fight against the Viet Cong.

The Juggernaut marches on.

The current lamentation of the War Baby and Baby Boomer generations of the dramatic change in America that has happened in their lifetimes – the centralized control of Americans under the Unified Power of politics and money, as those community forces have vanished that used to be the dominant force in American Political Life – only presages the hopelessness of the X Generation and beyond to resist the forces to which the current retiring generations gave up their Democracy. That Democracy within our own nation which was purportedly “Of the People, by the People, For the People” has PERISHED FROM THE EARTH.

We owe future generations of Americans an apology.
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Edward Campbell Nov 10, 2013

I stopped attending Christian church because of foppish moralizing. I needn't waste time on the same self-righteous crappola in the pages of what professes to be a source of up-to-date political economy.

Understanding and, gasp, aiding progressive change in any nation presumes an attitude rooted in something more than Cold War agitprop.
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John Shin Nov 10, 2013

In order to grapple with the institutional challenges facing China as explained by Minxin Pei, the CCP leadership and the Chinese society need a framework to fall back. Unfortunately, China's social organization, with its capitalist-dictatorship hybrid basis, has not yet borne out the requisite stages of arriving at a consensus on the future. The kinds of far-reaching reforms for China imagined by Professor Pei will fail to arrive anytime soon.
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Jen PeiWeng Nov 10, 2013

Mr. Pei
I share your views about today’s China needs on Xi’s anti-corruption campaign; the establishment of efficient checks on the exercise of power; lack of economic ideas or policy expertise; lack of knowledge on what kind of economic reforms are needed; various opposition powers against the possible decentralizing and liberalizing reforms; flawed political institutions…etc
Yes! It is true that China need to solve as much problems they are facing as possible. It is not easy to explore in details of the problems and/ or difficulties one by one. However it leads to a rather pessimistic outlook for 3rd plenum of 18th CPC congress, could you, base on what introduced by your article, give us your estimate on:
1. Could China restructure economy from over-weighted on trading or China will continue export oriented economy?
2. What kind of growth will China achieve in following 5 years? 7.5% is impossible to pursue?
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الصين واختبار الجلسة المكتملة

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