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Why the Fed Is Hard to Predict

The US Federal Reserve is adrift, and it has only itself to blame. Regardless of whether its policy-setting committee announces another interest-rate hike in June, its top priority now should be to address the structural weaknesses that led it astray in the first place.

CAMBRIDGE – One might think that predicting the US Federal Reserve’s next policy moves would become easier now that it has already hiked interest rates ten consecutive times, for a total of five percentage points. Not so fast: I suspect that few, if any know for sure what the Fed will do at its June 13-14 meeting – not even the Fed itself.