After years in the political wilderness, the UK Labour Party is now far ahead in opinion polls, with sensible plans for improving the country's economic performance. But to translate promises into results, any future government will have to do something about the elephant in the room: chronic under-investment.
explains what it will take for any political party to restore hope in the country's long-term economic future.
For the US, Slovakia's general election may produce another unreliable allied government. But instead of turning a blind eye to such allies, as President Joe Biden has been doing with Poland, or confronting them with an uncompromising stance, the US should spearhead efforts to help mend flawed democracies.
reflect on the outcome of Slovakia's general election in the run-up to Poland's decisive vote.
发自纽约—由新性冠状病毒(2019-nCov)所引发的恐慌起源于中国其中一个超大型城市,也是国内主要交通枢纽之一的武汉,它让许多人回忆起了2003年非典型肺炎(SARS)危机高峰时的恐惧和不确定性。而中国股市也在数月上涨后也在近期出现了逆转,全球市场也紧随其后,这显然反映出人们就该疫情对中国经济和全球增长影响的担忧。那么这些担心是合理的吗?
对此我的基本预测是冠状病毒疫情在好转之前还会继续恶化一段时间,感染和死亡数字可能在2月的第二或第三周达到高峰,但希望中国当局和世界卫生组织都能在4月初宣布疫情已得到控制。
在这种基本设想下,我的最乐观估算是该病毒只会产生有限的负面经济影响。它对2020年中国GDP增长率的影响可能很小,可能仅减少0.1个百分点。疫情对2020年第一季度的影响将十分巨大,也许会在年化基础上将增长拉低1个百分点,但这将被今年余下时间中高于趋势的增长所抵消,对世界GDP增长的影响则更小了。
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