Economics

Argentinský ekonomický velký třesk

Dec 21, 2015 Mohamed A. El-Erian

FRANKFURT – Vláda nově zvoleného argentinského prezidenta Mauricia Macriho zahájila minulý týden smělý plán revitalizace poničené a narušené ekonomiky, kterou sužuje vysoká inflace. V době odrazujících krizových podmínek by nikdo neměl podceňovat význam tohoto kroku nejen pro Argentinu, ale i pro další země, jejichž představitelé bedlivě sledují možnosti, jak se vyrovnat s vlastními ekonomickými útrapami.

Vinou dlouholetého špatného řízení argentinská ekonomika několik desítek let fungovala pod své možnosti. Předešlé vlády se snažily vyhýbat nelehkým politickým rozhodnutím a zametat zásadní problémy pod koberec zaváděním neefektivních kontrolních mechanismů, které vedly k nesmírně špatné alokaci zdrojů a podkopaly schopnost Argentiny generovat příjmy v zahraničních měnách, potřebné k platbám za dovoz, což vedlo k nedostatku zboží na domácích trzích. Nedávný pokles cen komodit situaci ještě zhoršil, jelikož připravil ekonomiku o poslední zbytek růstové dynamiky, přiživil inflaci, prohloubil chudobu a rozšířil ekonomickou nejistotu a finanční nestabilitu.

Teoreticky mají vlády v takové situaci pět základních možností, jak zvládnout krizové podmínky, v závislosti na dopadech jednotlivých opatření na posílení motorů růstu a zaměstnanosti.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

Writing for PS since 2010
161 Commentaries

Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, is a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and the author of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse (Random House, 2016) and a co-author (with Gordon Brown, Michael Spence, and Reid Lidow) of Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World (Simon & Schuster, 2023).

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joey jay Jan 12, 2016

Here is your beloved host country situation. You have applied your own device to the Obama and the mess is set for a long time:
the whole country is a toilet bow.

#1 The lowest earning 23,303,064 Americans combined make 36 percent less than the highest earning 2,915 Americans do.

#2 40 percent of all American workers (39.6 percent to be precise) make less than $20,000 a year.

#3 According to the Pew Research Center, the top 7 percent of all U.S. households own 63 percent of all the wealth in the country.

#4 On average, households in the top 7 percent have 24 times as much wealth as households in the bottom 93 percent.

#5 49.7 million Americans are living in poverty. That is a brand new all-time record high.

#6 In the United States today, the wealthiest one percent of all Americans have a greater net worth than the bottom 90 percent combined.

#7 Household incomes have actually been declining for five years in a row and total consumer credit has risen by a whopping 22 percent over the past three years.

#8 According to Forbes, the 400 wealthiest Americans have more wealth than the bottom 150 million Americans combined.

#9 The homeownership rate in the United States is at an 18 year low.

#10 The six heirs of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton have as much wealth as the bottom one-third of all Americans combined.

#11 18 percent of all food stamp dollars are spent at Wal-Mart.

#12 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the middle class is taking home a smaller share of the overall income pie than has ever been recorded before.

#13 It is hard to believe, but right now 1.2 million students that attend public schools in America are homeless. That number has risen by 72 percent since the start of the last recession.

#14 One recent study discovered that nearly half of all public students in the United States come from low income homes.

#15 In 1980, CEOs at S&P 500 companies made 42 times as much as their employees did on average. Today, CEOs at S&P 500 companies make 354 times as much as their employees do on average. In fact, there are many CEOs that make more than 1000 times what the average employees in their companies make.

#16 U.S. families that have a head of household that is under the age of 30 have a poverty rate of 37 percent.

#17 At this point, one out of every four American workers has a job that pays $10 an hour or less.

#18 Today, the United States actually has a higher percentage of workers doing low wage work than any other major industrialized nation does.

#19 Approximately one out of every five households in the United States is now on food stamps.

#20 The number of Americans on food stamps has grown from 17 million in the year 2000 to more than 47 million today.

#21 At this point, the poorest 50 percent of all Americans collectively own just 2.5 percent of all the wealth in the United States.

Employment in America is inadequate and dismal.

Mr. Get life..you can only fool some people some of the time... and Macri has started making $hit mistakes already...
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joey jay Dec 28, 2015

I first read your article at the Guardian UK, the only broadsheet I still look at because it covers the world. I stop reading all the other because it all has become mostly propaganda. Then I went to your name and clicked to better inform myself of what kind of economist you are (I consider economy to be a voodoo type of science, because it does not include in its GDP (as minus) the cost of environmental degradation created by the exploitation of the planet, nor it does not demands that the price of doing business include the price of compensating the people living in forests, or in native lands for the disruption of their lives.
Anyways, I learn that you advise Allianz and you are the Chairman of US President Barack Obama's Global Development Council... You were Pimco CEO and other stuff I googled...
Here you are giving your opinion about Argentina's economy. Here you are advising Obama and then, the rubber hits the road.
According to Prof. Jeff Sachs, from Columbia University, whom was my Professor at the Sustainable Development program for Coursera, the US has increased the number of poor people tremendously after the 2008 financial crisis. The banksters got their money and so did AIG, menawhile the poor and financially fragile families, go without.
You, as a so called economist, what have you done to correct the situation and have your buddies in the financial sector stop "shorting" or "flipping" assets or manipulating the price of gold/silver, or some of the other nasty things that the financial sector does well in order to get the taxpayer cover the banksters' losses?
Matt Taibbi has your/ and your buddies numbers in amny of the investigative journalism he wrote for Rolling Stone.
My final question is:"If you have advise for Argentina why don't you advise Obama on how to get out of the 19 trillion dollars debt, which does not include the amount the States debts, the local debt, nor the agency debts.
Anyways if you were really, really good, you would have helped the US to get out of the financial mess, the US is in and paid attention to your own house on fire. Instead you are advising Argentina? The last one of your US kind went out to help Latino America, it made them more poor and more dependent (Milton Friedman school of robonomics (like they did in Russia under Yeltsin and the Jeff Sachs himself guiding them).
The day you can solve the problems of your country of residence, then you can go advising others.
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Michael Public Dec 22, 2015

The problem with toally free market approaches is they work when you have something renewable to sell, like product from a factory. When, on the other hand, you just deregulate everything living standard actually drop because all key institutions get bought up i.e. the capital assets. Then the electricty, water and transport prices get hiked and everyone is poorer despite the gdp numbers being up.
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Argentinský ekonomický velký třesk

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