Richard Haass, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior counselor at Centerview Partners, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-03), and was President George W. Bush's special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author of The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens (Penguin Press, 2023) and the weekly Substack newsletter Home & Away.
发自纽约——美国棒球运动员劳伦斯·“尤吉”·贝拉(Lawrence “Yogi” Berra)有句广为传颂的名言:“预测很困难,特别是关于未来的预测。”不管他是否真的说过这句话,这个观点是靠谱的。而以下则是对刚刚开启新一年的世界的十项预测。
首先,作为2022年的主导性问题,乌克兰战争将继续下去,只是烈度会有所降低。如果胜利被定义为击溃对方并主导制定关于战后领土划分或政治解决方案的条款,那俄罗斯和乌克兰都没有办法取得完全的军事胜利。
而如果将胜利定义为达成双方政府都愿意签署和遵守的安排,那么外交官们也不会取得胜利。和平需要愿意且能够妥协的领导人,但双方显然都(出于明显不同的原因)缺乏这两个要素。
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