bergstrom3_JONATHAN NACKSTRANDAFP via Getty Images_swedencoronavirus

The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model”

Apr 17, 2020 Hans Bergstrom

As the coronavirus pandemic has swept the planet, Sweden has stood out among Western democracies by pursuing a "low-scale" lockdown. Whether this approach speaks to a unique strength of Swedish society, as opposed to bad judgment, can be determined by comparing Sweden's COVID-19 rate with its neighbors'.

STOCKHOLM – Does Sweden’s decision to spurn a national lockdown offer a distinct way to fight COVID-19 while maintaining an open society? The country’s unorthodox response to the coronavirus is popular at home and has won praise in some quarters abroad. But it also has contributed to one of the world’s highest COVID-19 death rates, exceeding that of the United States.

In Stockholm, bars and restaurants are filled with people enjoying the spring sun after a long, dark winter. Schools and gyms are open. Swedish officials have offered public-health advice but have imposed few sanctions. No official guidelines recommend that people wear masks.

During the pandemic’s early stages, the government and most commentators proudly embraced this “Swedish model,” claiming that it was built on Swedes’ uniquely high levels of “trust” in institutions and in one another. Prime Minister Stefan Löfven made a point of appealing to Swedes’ self-discipline, expecting them to act responsibly without requiring orders from authorities.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 107 in all 107 Comments on this article

Michael Public May 6, 2020

I am just here on May 6 to say Sweden reduced their new infections from the their local peak WITHOUT a lockdown, while South Africa increased their new infections per day by around a factor of 10 WHILE UNDER LOCKDOWN.
- Jay Shin Jun 3, 2020
  
  I am just here on June 3 to say Anders Tegnell basically admitted their failure by saying, “If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done.” The model failed, so I don't understand the ground of your claim.
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Paul Klee May 3, 2020

First, the author begins with a sweeping generalization about the Swedish character; its trust in institutions, exemplary self-discipline, the "policeman every Swede carries on his shoulders,"etc. A few paragraph later, though, he points out that 25% of the population is actually foreign-born (much higher than its scandanavian neighbors) and this segment of the population is significantly over-represented in Covid cases and deaths. However, he then quickly attributes this phenomenon to lack of information in their native language, living densities etc. There he skips over the logical question of whether this immigrant community reflects the Swedish virtues upon which the misguided Swedish model is based. Apparently not, because if they can't speak and understand the Swedish language they cannot possibly assimilate all these purported national virtues. So as much as he wishes to avoid this controversial question, he makes it conspicuous by its absence.
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Prashant Kotak May 1, 2020

As a complete aside, and apropos of nothing, I would not recommend doing a google search for the term "Swedish Model". I did this, and the results were not as expected.
- Michael Public May 6, 2020
  
  I tried it. I just got lots references to old Volvos. Sometimes Google just knows what you are looking for ;-)
  - Prashant Kotak May 7, 2020
    
    Exactly. Not as expected. (but ps, if you search for the plural - "Swedish Models" - you won't be seeing the old Volvos)
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- Giles Toman May 4, 2020
  
  I just tried this and it was very interesting.
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Catalin Adam May 1, 2020

As taken from this article alone, but there are a lot more articles on the subject:

https://valahia.news/sweden-is-now-the-model-to-follow-no-lockdown/

`'Despite the criticism, it seems that the Swedish model does work. No-lockdown policy seems to be very effective, especially when compare it to many of the other countries, let alone the most affected ones, such as Italy, Spain or France.

This is a comparison regarding COVID-19 infected people per million of inhabitants:

Spain: 5,125 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 525 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
Belgium: 4,186 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 655 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
Switzerland: 3,419 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 201 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
Italy: 3,398 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 463 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
USA: 3,309 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 193 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
UK: 2,523 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 394 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
Netherlands: 2,295 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 280 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
Sweden: 2,088 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 256 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
Germany: 1,946 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 79 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
Denmark: 1,581 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 78 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
Norway: 1,427 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 39 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Romania: 636 cases/1 Mil. inhabitants and 37 deaths/1 Mil. inhabitants.
Please note that Sweden is way behind other countries, some of them not even selected here, such as Turkey, Canada or even Israel, to name just a few countries to have taken lockdown measures.'

So, your article, dear Sir, as some other reader said, is simply biased and compares Sweden with only neighboring countries. Sweden model is an exception to the lockdown policy and should be compared with all the other countries, not only with the ones which favors your conclusion.

Stay safe, be brave!
- Alexis Fernandez May 7, 2020
  
  Thank you for your answer. These guys have an agenda, that's the problem.
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Julius Bloomfield Apr 30, 2020

Here are some better numbers to make some semi-educated conclusions. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
The death rates against the previous years averages for various countries is quite interesting.
The true value of the Swedish model will not be known until the virus is over so we can determine the whether the virus can be caught more than once or can mutate to infect people multiple times. We will not be able to gauge the economic cost of the lockdown until at least 2021.
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Jolie Mcmillian Apr 29, 2020

To be very clear I have been a proponent here in TO of taking lock down measures, given the primary goal is to not overburden the health system. That being said, we are under capacity now and have been for some time. Toronto deferred 55,000 surgeries which will bring big issues, and of course our economy has taken a massive beating. But hey at least China is selling us PPE at 5X the normal price and much of that is defective.. What I am absolutely still not comfortable with and what we must see is the right data. How many normal deaths would occur between Feb to April that would be. attributed to Influenza and lower respiratory -pneumonia. Sweden can offer that insight in a way that no other country can. Deaths caused by these two things would not stop in a lockdown... so if New York normally would have 10,000 people die in March due to these two conditions, what was the increase? That variable tells us what we need to know. Swedens data offers the purest analysis around that given there was no lockdown, so you have a clean YoY comparison. This will also be especially critical given these months, Feb and March happen to be the highest for Influenza deaths. Data is contextual, and I for one am not happy with how it is being interpreted: from cases being tallied (in absence of test data), to Death Data from Influenze and Pneumonia vs. Death data post Covid.
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Andrés Palacio Apr 27, 2020

He opted to include the % of foreign/immigrant which is the highest possible in the statistics. That is, "Foreign background include foreign-born and Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents”, of course, he opted not to mention that on average (during his period of analysis) the second largest group remains the Finns, which was the first largest group until 2010 and became only the third in 2019. And if we are talking a fast increase since the 2000s, he should not forget the Polish which constitute the fourth largest group on top of immigrants from Iran and Somalia.
But as reported in Foreign Policy, if it were not for those immigrants…..: "The Hidden Flaw in Sweden’s Anti-Lockdown Strategy"

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti-lockdown-immigrants/
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jon Row Apr 26, 2020

All true no doubt but a partial story. As Tegnel said (paraphrased) we can keep this up indefinitely. Could any of the countries under a hard lockdown do it indefinitely. Absolutely no mention of the economic consequences to those countries. We haven’t seen the bill yet. And on the argument about more deaths we implicitly accept deaths for greater benefits in our society. For example, we have a number of road deaths every year and have clearly decided that the level of traffic we have and the benefits from that outweighs the downside of those deaths. In the same way, excess deaths from the coronavirus may be acceptable when measured against the economic disbenefits of unemployment, mental health issues arising from lockdown, and NHS resources diverted away from other deadly outcomes.
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Jonathan Bagley Apr 25, 2020

Wasn't the original intention to prevent health services becoming overwhelmed?Sweden is acomplishing that. We are now fixated on deaths, like a macabre Eurovision song contest (particularly here in the UK). As there will be no vaccine or cure in the next year, and we can't carry on with lockdowns for that long, similar numbers will eventually die - and not that many excess deaths over, say, a year; yet the Swedish people and the Swedish economy will have suffered far less damage than other countries.
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Jonathan Engel Apr 24, 2020

A disreputable article:
Look at death rates per million of population, and Sweden doen't seem to be doing too badly:
Belgium 568
Spain 474
Italy 423
France 326
UK 282
NL 242
Sweden 198
Ireland 163
US 152
Denmark 68
Such a dishonest article, using inappropriate statistics to prove a point which is perfectly open, for the time being....
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Basilio Monteiro Apr 23, 2020

This piece is so deeply flawed in many of its assumptions, premises and argumentation. To assume that the "bureaucrats" came up with the policy without taking into the civic virtues of the citizens is preposterous. Any average bureaucrat knows to take into account the psycho-social profile of the country's citizens. The note worthy observation in the piece is about the diversification of the population, which now is at, as per the author, is 25%.
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twood Apr 23, 2020

I am a senior and put in my contribution all my adult years including looking after my parent's generation. I am so lucky not to live in sweden now, where saving the economy overshadows saving lives, especially retirees lives. What a humanist outlook when compared to asian countries. Certainly most of the commentators have the "right " not to look after me.
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John Weir Apr 23, 2020

UK has decided to adopt a more aggressive lock-down policy than Sweden. However, Sweden appears to be performing better than UK taking into account the facts that Sweden has a marginally higher urban density and Sweden also includes its care home deaths in its figures where UK does not. Maybe this indicates that lock-down itself has a limited impact.
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Dimitris Yannopoulos Apr 23, 2020

The fact that this article’s grossly oversimplified and undifferentiated “death statistics” hides and obfuscates much more than it reveals, is evidence of bad faith and ulterior agenda pushed in Europe by its editors and “philanthropist“ PS benefactor George Soros.
- Stefano Papa Apr 24, 2020
  
  Dimitris Yannopoulos rightly criticizes the contribution "Grim Truth" by Mr Bergstrom, for being unspecific when dealing with data. One of the key issues (not only as to this crisis) is that the step from quantitative models to policies should be inferential, not intuitive (doing the wrong thing for some right reason doesn't make it better). This requires a fine grained approach to sets. It'd be more informative, for instance, to compare information about preexisting multi pathologies of death cases in different countries, as being issued by nhs around Europe. Thus said, I couldn't put it better than Dimitris just did: the approach taken in Bergstrom's contribution "hides and obfuscates more than it reveals". StP
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Jeremy Smilg Apr 22, 2020

I am not in favour of the Swedish model but Project Syndicate does itself a disservice by not insisting that the article also makes it clear that the mortality rate is lower in Sweden than Netherlands or France. I expect better from Project Syndicate.
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Borislav Maric Apr 22, 2020

Those who criticize someone else's decisions need to know how decisions are made, namely, it may happen that someone makes the right decision, but that, for example, external factors, human factors and the like, make the effect of that decision smaller than expected, sometimes even smaller than the effect caused by someone else's decision that was made incorrectly but whose effect is greater, but that does not mean that the first mentioned decision was not made on the right way, and especially does not mean that the second mentioned decision is a good decision, because that second decision was not made in the right way.
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Andy Apr 22, 2020

There is no vaccine. Lockdown only slows the progress of the virus and cant go on. Sweden has chosen to get herd immunity in 6 months without destroying the economy. Other countries have chosen to achieve herd immunity over a longer period with inevitable economic consequences. In 18m to 2 years the deaths from Covid will be similar in proportion in all these countries. Looking at short term statistics in this context is thoroughly misleading.
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D. V. Gendre Apr 22, 2020

THIS IS FAKE NEWS! Propaganda! There are other countries, like France, Switzerland, Belgium etc., with even higher death rates that have imposed very though measures early on! Without knowing the dark figure of infections it's impossible to have reliable data about the death rate! We will know the real death rates only months after the virus has been held in check, which is far away right now.

This article is a good example of how the policitians are hostages of the media, that is withholding important data (BTW incl. some governments). The media does hardly inform how many people are healed. They only add the confirmend cases day by day and the death numbers. This sums up to a ridiculous infection numbers world wide but that is hardly the number of people actually still being infected and in hospitals (which is the bottle neck of the health care system). All those published data on its own is worthless to get a real picture of COVID-19.
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Torbjörn Sandblom Apr 21, 2020

.
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Paa Joe Apr 20, 2020

By being selective with your countries of comparison, you make your entire argument biased. Why didn't you choose say Italy, Spain and UK given that being a border country to another has clearly showed not no have any influence on number of cases and deaths. What is more, it is very evident that the number of deaths are determined mostly by pre-existing factors including underlying health conditions and age of affected people. Any analysis with number of deaths must therefore consider all such factors.
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Steve Finley Apr 19, 2020

Awfully hard to do this kind of comparison without accounting for all variables such as age and health of population, specific characteristics of those who died, whether one or two heavy-outbreak areas skewed the stats, etc. The author himself has given more than one factor that clearly could be responsible for a higher rate -- the return of families from Italy who then went back to work and school, the fact that ski resorts were kept open, not prohibiting visits to nursing homes until April 1 (the article gives a huge clue here when it says COVID was found in about half of Stockholm's elderly facilities, which likely led to a highly disproportionate number of deaths), and so forth.

In the end, it's probably true that Sweden could've taken some moderate measures that would've made a real difference, and could've been earlier with the measures it did take, just as nations that were on total or near-total lockdown will find that not all their measures were necessary, and many were well over the point of sharply diminishing returns. But it's also true that Sweden's actions will prove to have been more in keeping with the models that did _not_ insist on worst-possible-outcome projections, as opposed to so many other nations that did.

There's going to be a real moment of "what do we do now?" at the beginning of next flu season, if current trends continue with uncovering much higher infection-recovery-and-immunity rates for COVID that result in a much lower death rate, approaching seasonal-flu levels. Flu causes a quarter to half a million deaths worldwide every year, and 30-60,000 in the U.S. alone. Everybody knows it's going to happen; nobody advocates shutting down an entire nation because of it; and except for a relative few, you can't get people to take the simplest measures to prevent the spread of flu every year. Cumulatively, millions die from it every decade. So now what, now that we've established this standard?
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Per Kurowski Apr 19, 2020

Take very good care of the older but let those at so much less risk of dying younger than 50 years of age free.
Do not mortgage their future. That would violate that holy intergenerational bond Edmund Burke spoke of.
https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-capacity-to-borrow-at-reasonable.html

PS. In April 2016 Swedish authorities issued my mother a driver license that would have expired when she was almost 103 years of age. Asking about the wisdom of such thing, I was told that in Sweden the Swedes were supposed to know when they were fit to drive or not.
- Prashant Kotak Apr 20, 2020
  
  I completely agree. The mind-numbing levels of debt being taken on, by governments, companies, and individuals globally, cannot possibly be unwound for many years. Businesses people have spent years building up are going up in smoke, undoubtedly resulting in mass unemployment. In addition, there will be vast numbers of zombie businesses on the other side of the lockdowns, technically bankrupt, but cannot be allowed to fail - like the Italian Banks, but multiplied by a thousand.
  
  A two decade global depression looms, like the one after the '29 crash.
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peter van Vliet Apr 19, 2020

Following Greg, it's definitely too early to make such comparisons. And if you make them, be complete. In this way it just looks like a Tegnell-bashing / Sweden-bashing campaign for political reasons only. Look at the Netherlands vs Belgium, the latter having a fierce lockdown AND death rates beyond Italy (490 / m), with those of NL (215/m) being less than half of that per million, despite of more lenient regulations.
On top of that, half of Sweden's infected and deaths are in the (wider) Stockholm region, representing a mere 3% of Sweden's landspace. Stockholm as such does not perform worse than a lot of other urban regions. When looking objectively (and keeping in mind that the data we base our analysis on are very premature) Sweden's performance is not out of line with the general observations, whether you agree with its approach or not.
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Gunnar Eriksson Apr 19, 2020

1400 deaths is 9% of the normal death figure for 2 months in Sweden (15000). It will be interesting to study what increase (if any) we can confirm in different countries from the general statistics. This will be a much better guide for judging the additional death figures.
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Lars Westerlund Apr 19, 2020

Another problem in Sweden is that people over 80 are in general not welcome to hospitals for corona treatment and are instead supposed to receive treatment at their care centre. However, since those care centres / elderly homes do not have oxygen, even basic treatment is impossible. Instead doctors have been directed to give morphine as the first and only treatment. This causes death. The guidelines to give elderly morphine instead of oxygen was revealed by "Dr whistleblower". Why not try to save the elderly. All people below 80 get oxygen when they have trouble breathing.

Also note that the survival rate for intensive care corona patients is 80% in Sweden. Way higher than in any other country. The reason is that older people are simply denied treatment despite of there being plenty of intensive care places available.

I wonder if Sweden could be guilty of violating human rights.
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Greg Cheverall Apr 19, 2020

I personally think it’s pointless to try and conduct any analysis on which countries got it right and which didn’t until at least a year. Maybe longer. A second wave may hit everyone (I hope it doesn’t, but if it does, countries who locked down early and for longer will he hit harder than countries who locked down later or more loosely).

Is there any relevance, right know, in comparing Sweden’s response vs Norways or other states? We see the same in the UK media and most are generally unfavourable (to the U.K.) but as I’ve already said, no one will know the more successful strategy for months, potentially years. And even if one country's death rate is ultimately higher than another's, there are many more variables at play in complex economies than lockdown dates and lockdown severity alone.
- Matt T Apr 20, 2020
  
  Exactly. Professor of Political Science says it all. Come back next week when the professor elaborates on cod fishing...
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Inger Brante Apr 19, 2020

Can we trust this man ? He does not even know that the schools been closed for weeks
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jos_seligman Apr 19, 2020

Why only compare Sweden to countries with low death rates? What about France, Spain, Italy and UK which are all in lockdown and have higher death rates?
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Jack Leon Apr 19, 2020

What about, Spain, Italy, UK, France,Belgium, Switzerland, Iran, USA, all locked their countries down completely, and have far higher deaths per capita. This article should be pointing out how much better Sweden is doing, dealing with the crisis without pushing 10% of your civilians into poverty and unemployment. But seems like this is only to protect the fragile narrative of complete lockdown.
- Petr Dejmek Apr 21, 2020
  
  In fact, Sweden's Employment Agency gives today the unemployment rate as 8% and expects it to rise to 10% this summer
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ialexandr . Apr 19, 2020

If Switzerland were in the table the death rate would be much higher than all the other countries . Author is selecting data for his own arguments to look good...
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ian board Apr 19, 2020

Sweden may have it right. Lost in much of the discussion is the fact that shutting everything down will also kill people. There will be lots of people stressed out and depressed about losing jobs, bankruptcies and isolation. Increased drug use and alcohol consumption will result. Not quite as sexy as deaths by a virus, but just as real.
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Eric Rachut Apr 18, 2020

The numbers for the Scandinavian countries are so low as to have doubtful statistical significance, aside from the facts that, unlike Sweden, the others do not have risk factors such as several larger cities or large immigrant populations (as this article notes). Let's compare Sweden, with a population of 10 million and several large cities, to Belgium, population 11 million and also several good sized cities. Sweden has (essentially) no lockdown, Belgium a draconian lockdown. Now what do the stats show? Check it out!
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mike Kalny Apr 18, 2020

If only the U.S. had a leader with the courage to buck the conventional guesses of medical technocrats. Unprecedented draconian measures that trample on the rights of citizens to peacefully assemble and go about their daily lives without government impediments and restrictions, will in the end, result in a life not worth living - no matter what the numbers say.

Once the genie is out of the bottle, the cat out of the bag, or the virus out of the laboratory, life as we know it in a democratic republic, will never be the same. These fascist measures will be used again and again to suit the whims of whoever is governing at the time to combat a real or imagined crisis in the "guise" of saving lives.
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Milton Morris Apr 18, 2020

Bernie & his bros. are always pointing to Sweden as the world's shining star. But as Hans points out, perhaps we shouldn't be looking to Sweden as our role model.
- Jack Leon Apr 19, 2020
  
  You mean congratulating them for having lower death rates than, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, and not putting half their restaurants out of business. This is a blatantly slanted article.
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- Alan Blair Apr 19, 2020
  
  I think their policy reasonable. Given an older population and an immigrant population of 25% (mainly on the dole). Their slightly higher death rates per Million are in keeping with the US experience. They have achieved similar death rates without having the shut down the economy.
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Jeff Johnson Apr 18, 2020

Sweden's rate of deaths per million of population is far from the highest in Europe. In fact, Belgium, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, and Switzerland all have death rates higher than Sweden. And most of them have instituted very restrictive policies. Belgium's death rate is three times that of Sweden and France's rate is nearly double. It may be that the virus is so persistent that it is more than a match for mitigation policies. Pray for an effective therapy and an effective vaccine.
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mark Apr 18, 2020

This commentary by Hans Berstrom is very dishonest. Sweden's method of handling the pandemic would logically only have an impact on the infection rate, not the death rate. The death rate is a function of the age and health of the population, access to effective medications, and efficacy of its health care system. So, this author is using facts that do not support his conclusion that Sweden's method of handling the pandemic has led to more deaths in Sweden. That's called a non-sequitur.

In fact, if you look at the infection rates of Sweden, Denmark, and Norway on a per capital basis, they are all very similar. This seems to indicate that Sweden's more permissive approach to dealing with Covid-19 has in fact been no less effective than the shutdown tactics of Denmark and Norway. At the same time, Sweden has been able to keep its economy open, its people employed, and its way of life relatively intact. Seems like a good model to me!
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william starr Apr 18, 2020

Let get this straight. The argument is/was that the death/infection rate was always going to be the same. The "lock down" will just spread these over time versus a narrow and steep distribution. The only excess death will be a function of exceeding the capacity of hospitals. That has not been a problem for Sweden relative to other Nordic countries. If the that capacity is not exceeded, then the "lock down" is moot.

Sweden is an older society compared to other Nordic countries. I would bet that this and other factors are responsible or the difference in death rates across nations. There a reason why Italy and Spain are some of the worse effected.
- Peter Schaeffer Apr 19, 2020
  
  "Lock-downs" don't just change the timing of infections, they reduce (profoundly) the total number of infections. Look at Greece (vs Spain) or Vietnam or Portugal (vs Spain again) or Singapore or China (yes, China has down better than Sweden).
  - Jonathan Bagley Apr 25, 2020
    
    But the virus hasn't gone away. Where there have been very few deaths, a permanent cycle of similar draconian lockdowns is the logical consquence. Is this strategy feasible. maybe in Singapore or S Korea, but not here in the UK. We are now fixated on deaths. we have to accept that in most cases, deaths from covid will occur slightly before deaths from other causes.
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  - Alan Blair Apr 20, 2020
    
    Hard to say. Greece shut down around March 13th and Spain shut down around March 16th. However, Spanish authorities said the number of infections climbed past 5,700, half of them in the capital, Madrid. That represents a national increase of over 1,500 in 24 hours. The country had 136 deaths, up from 120. Greece shut down with something like 4 deaths and 200 cases. The immediate deaths per million are much lower for Greece. But I would expect (eventually) that Greech would catch up with Spain. The Hospitals would not be overwhelmed so that helps. You might find more effective treatments, and after the first wave the virulence of the virus should decrease.
    - Peter Schaeffer Apr 20, 2020
      
      AB, "But I would expect (eventually) that Greece would catch up with Spain". This is a debate occurring in the USA and around the world. Do quarantines just "flatten the curve" or do they reduce (profoundly) the total, final number of infections. Both outcomes have value. However, the second outcome has more value than the former.
      
      I would argue based on experience in China, Taiwan, Singapore, S. Korea, Vietnam, etc. that the second outcome is the correct one.
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- laban Yu Apr 18, 2020
  
  That is/was NOT the argument. Lockdown followed by mitigation was sold as reducing overloaded hospitals AND overall infections buying time for vaccines/therapeutics.
  
  If no vaccine or therapeutic drug is developed, then you are correct.
  - Greg Cheverall Apr 19, 2020
    
    That’s exactly what William said...
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- Jeff Johnson Apr 18, 2020
  
  Excatly, the area under the "peak" curve and the "shelter" curve is the same. Only the maximum demand on the healthcare systems was different. In fact, the shelter-in-place mitigation policy is far more destructive to the economy and therefore poverty and all of its attendant ills.
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- Randomengineer de Leather Apr 18, 2020
  
  Sure, it's easy to compare Sweden with say Finland, which has a lower population density, more homogeneous population, and relatively little industry, but why? Because it's in Scandinavia? Nonsense. Sweden has Volvo and Ikea and all manner of industry and air travelers that Finland does not. Cherrypicked comparisons of apples and oranges are the basis of the article.
  
  Given that the stated death rate in Sweden isn't any different than that of many other comparable industrial European countries (or the USA) this shows definitively that asking citizens to be mindful is the proper solution and lockdowns are not necessary. Wear a mask, wash up, don't crowd -- this appears to be what actually works.
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- Lionel McGloin Apr 18, 2020
  
  Thank you for articulating this so well!! It almost seems like people believe that social distancing will destroy Covid-19. As long as there is a non-zero number of cases, the virus will continue to spread. Social distancing isn't more powerful than exponential growth and if the hospitals can withstand the surge, then society should be reopened.
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Doug Williamson Apr 18, 2020

In the near term, it would seem self evident that Swedish death count would be higher. The effectiveness of the Swedish strategy can only be properly assessed later in the year.
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Rob M Apr 18, 2020

All decisions have costs and benefits. Proponents of a policy often exaggerate benefits and ignore or downplay costs. Opponents tend to do the opposite.

Here, the author is doing the latter. He has chosen a politically motivated mood to support a lockdown and he is forming disparate views to defend that view.

Sweden's CV deaths are minuscule. While relative comparisons are useful, one mustn't ignore absolute levels.

Lockdowns cause tremendous grief, hardship and even deaths. Those are the costs that the author is waving away.

Is it heartless to weigh lives against well being? Hardly. This is political sophistry. Every single day, people make choices that risk their lives for the sake of work, school, shopping, or petty pleasures. Any speed limit greater than zero, for example, puts people at risk of dying in auto accidents.

Sweden made a bold choice based on science -- the science of economics and cost benefit analysis. It didn't succumb to the emotional whinging of saving lives at any expense. Not locking down isnt a death sentence any more than a non-zero speed limit. We purpose not their deaths when we purpose their liberty.

The author betrays both his politics and his ignorance by saying Trump is at odds with his scientific advisors. This is a common leftist trope with no basis in reality. His chief advisor, Dr. Fauci, has stated publicly that Trump listened to and followed all his advice. Fauci specifically asked reporters to stop pitting him against the President.

The real anti-science people are the author and other leftists who believe that their cowardly decisions with no consideration of costs is proper decision making.

I perform cost benefit analysis for a US government agency. This isn't just a good idea, but the law. While my agency doesnt involve loss of life in its calculations, others do. This is time tested science and good governance.

But to say that the author and others have different values or information gives them too much credit for rational thought. Really, they are just contrarians and political opportunists.
- Jorge Nunez Apr 21, 2020
  
  What the heck do you want Fauci to say, that Trump is what he is? So he can be fired as anybody that has some issue with Trump? I mean, do you actually analyse what Mr Trump splutters every 5 minutes, ramblings, conspiracy theories, blaming others, contradicting facts, giving false information and then claiming he never did?
  
  I am am not challenging opinions on cost benefit analysis, but to come up with Mr Trump as a shining beacon of coherence put all your text into question.
  
  A) ALL COUNTRIES are following a policy based on the hospital capacity or ALL MEDICAL emergencies will not be handled well causing considerable damage. They may call it differently but all do.
  B) Reducing deaths also allows for the intermediate medications to appear... and I am not talking of the medication with nasty side effects Trump as great expert in medicine has singlehandedly proclaimed the silver bullet. He should try, at his age he could get a hart attack from it.
  C) Even younger people than 60 have a higher risk of dying or getting their lungs damaged, point few mention... it is NOT a flu.
  D) We better learn from this pandemic before we face one with 30% mortality. If SARS (the good old one with 30% mortality) had had asymptomatic periods we would not have been so complacent now.
  
  If you work in a US administration on cost benefit analysis (something I have also been doing in other administrations) I hope certainly not to be walking on something build based on your gambling ideas of people vs economy (COVID is still not well understood and the hidden death toll is unknown, france had to add thousands of death when looking beyond hospitals)
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Sean Dame Apr 18, 2020

What's the purpose of a national lock-down? It's my understanding the purpose of a national lock-down is to slow the spread of the infection so that healthcare facilities aren't overwhelmed with patients. I think the question we should be asking is if the lock-downs are accomplishing this purpose.
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Jeff Bullard Apr 18, 2020

Other countries in Northern Europe have locked down and have higher fatality rates in their population. For example Belgium is 3X higher at 477.4 per 1M of population. Spain 3X higher at 429. Netherlands at 209. UK at 233. Switzerland at 158. France at 279. Luxembourg at 119 and Ireland at 109 are about the same.
Furthermore its expected to have a faster impact early and be done with it sooner, as opposed to lockdowns which spread the impacts over a longer period of time. Check back in September when the virus is still spreading in other countries, still locked down, while Sweden has completed their curve and enjoy relative immunity. We shall see.
- Jorge Nunez Apr 21, 2020
  
  Belgiums lockdown is partial, I can go out walk in the park. Many services are on. It is not an Italian or Spanish lockdown. Nobody asks where I am going. Using Belgium as a case is wrong. Also Belgium adds other deaths than hospital cases and the number is higher based on methodology differences. Many countries having less do not cover the same kind of deaths.
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mrogre Apr 18, 2020

It seems to me that there are two critical points of data in evaluating the effect of Sweden's policies. The death rate is certainly one of them. However, the other data point that I would suggest as speaking more loudly to the efficacy of the lock down policies is the infection rate.
On worldometer with today's stats for the same countries listed:
Germany 1,669; Sweden 1,369; Norway 1,298; Denmark 1,250; Finland 664

In other words, the primary effect of any lock down policy would be to limit the rate of infection. The add on effects would be in preserving the ability of the health care system to respond to critical ill patients. More data points would be needed to evaluate whether or not the effect of Sweden's policies inundated its health care system leading to higher data rates.

However, in terms of infection rates, the picture is a lot more complicated as it challenges the orthodoxy of lock downs. There is great tension is balancing economy, personal liberties and a pandemic.

What Sweden has done is to provide us all with a critical data point for evaluating the outcome of minimum government mandate. Regardless of the outcome, we owe them a debt of gratitude for their actions (or inactions as the author would likely argue)
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George Ismael Apr 18, 2020

Flawed logic. The countries that "flatten the curve"
will take longer to reach their full number of dead. Sweden's curve will peak sooner and higher, but will be shorter in duration. It may or may not be true that Sweden has a higher death rate. We shall have to wait until the end of the bell curve is reached before we count.
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Mercer Tyson Apr 18, 2020

As with all these articles and comments, the problem is we don’t know the denominator. A recent study of Santa Clara County testing 3,300 random people who did not show signs or say they have the virus, 2.5 - 4.2% Were found to be positive. This would mean that the number of people who have or had the virus Is a whopping 45 times more than Previously thought. Throw that number into the denominator and see what you get. Also, it is likely that Sweden’s seemingly increased risk is a function of the process of the disease moving faster there than other places, but will also And sooner because the herd immunity will arrive quicker. Other countries may ultimately surpass Sweden by dragging everything out. The truth is we have salute Lee don’t know, so To definitively condemn Swedish model at this time is disingenuous Scientifically absurd.
- TS Low Apr 19, 2020
  
  That Santa Clara “study” was based on a Facebook poll, not a select and controlled sampling. It entirely relied on people volunteering information and no attempt was made to verify. It has about as much credibility as anything on Facebook.
  - Doug Monroe Apr 20, 2020
    
    It wasn’t a Facebook poll. It was limited “advertising” specifically designed and directed to a select population to achieve a high quality sampling. Not optimal but clever on such short notice. They’ve also completed tests in LA and 29 communities around the country. Papers coming out next week.
    - Mercer Tyson Apr 20, 2020
      
      Thanks. Saved me from the effort.
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- Alan Blair Apr 19, 2020
  
  There was an random sample in MA, that found 33% of the population was infected. https://www.foxnews.com/science/third-blood-samples-massachusetts-study-coronavirus The numbers are 2X to 100X more than the official figures. A lot of people do not have symptoms. This also means that the fatality rate is between .1% (a standard flu) to 1%. It is surprising that we do not yet have better statistics.
  - Jorge Nunez Apr 21, 2020
    
    Flu is 0,05% not 1%, that is Trump's wishy washy bla bla bla
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  - TS Low Apr 19, 2020
    
    Poor statistics because of poor testing.
    - Alan Blair Apr 20, 2020
      
      The sample was random, you can probably generalize it to the Urban area, but not to the state of MA or the entire US. I am kind of surprized that four months into the game good statistics are very hard to come by.
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- Ian van de Burgt Apr 19, 2020
  
  The death rate is simply the COVID-19 fatalities over the population of Sweden. You know that denominator well. Those stats are very scary indeed, and heading in the wrong direction if you hope to have hospitals to turn to over the next few months.
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- David Steadson Apr 19, 2020
  
  The Stanford Santa Clara study has some serious flaws. A good review here -
  
  https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25
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- Jonathan Galt Apr 18, 2020
  
  Correct. Too, there is a great deal of variation on how different countries are defining the numerator. Som are saying if the patient died and had the virus, then that was the “cause,” while others only count it if they believe the lung involvement of the disease led directly to the death. What this pandemic has taught us is that there is no standard whatsoever in place anywhere which we can count on as being reliable.
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James Sode Apr 18, 2020

This article misses everything about the Swedish approach.

First, Sweden would expect higher transmissions earlier but the same in the end. There is no evidence to think they are wrong

Second, limiting groups to 50 and allowing businesses to stay open, is far less draconian than the American approach

Finally, the comparisons are cherry picked. Sweden has a higher rate than some countries but much lower than others- Belgium, the Netherlands, UK, France, Spain and Italy for example
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Robert Jones Apr 18, 2020

The defining feature is that you don't have to kill the economy or trample people's rights to overcome the disease. Death rate is #14 in the world, and very close to the rate of the US. Sorry, but it's working.
- Jorge Nunez Apr 21, 2020
  
  You mean the US is something to follow? The US is not working, that is why Sweden is in Trouble.
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Henry Miller Apr 18, 2020

Or maybe, unlike American Democrats, Swedes actually value individual freedom and are fine with people making their own decisions about how safe they want to be and how to achieve that safety. The American Democrat approach, on the other hand, is to treat all Americans as if they're half-wits incapable of making their own decisions.
- Jorge Nunez Apr 21, 2020
  
  But they are from what I have been seen, they gobble any contradiction and false info they are put in front even if the opposite was said the day before by their guru in Chief. I am waiting for the second wave in the US, repeating the same mistakes of 1918 (look at the public reaction, the lifting of restrictions and the second wave even worse). Funnily, after that people still did not admit they made a mistake and blamed whoever, so I expect you to blame the democrats of the second wave, then the costs, then whatever happens. Historical records show tribalism is a human trait, often used by autocrats, and you have one in power, or do you think Trump cares of your freedom? Your freedom is to accept everything he says as true.
  - Jorge Nunez Apr 21, 2020
    
    ...
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  - Henry Miller Apr 21, 2020
    
    You're ignoring two things: that we've a century of medical research behind us since 2018, and vastly improved methods of dealing with disease, and that if you look at the demographics of the concentration of COVID cases you'll see that it's critically dependent on population density. The incidence is vanishingly low in ninety-plus percent of the US. "Draconian" measures may be sensible in high-population-density areas--cities--but are unnecessary in that 90-plus percent of the country.
    
    The average population density of Sweden is 25 people per square kilometre; of the US, 36. Of New York City, on the other hand, it's over 10 thousand per square kilometre. Density makes a huge difference.
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