US dollar bills rolled. faungg's photos/Flickr

Debt Déjà Vu

Seven years after the global financial crisis, leverage worldwide is higher than ever, and aggregate demand is still insufficient to drive robust growth. More radical policies – such as major debt write-downs or increased fiscal deficits financed by permanent monetization – will be required to increase global demand.

NEW YORK – For two years, financial markets have repeated the same error – predicting that US interest rates will rise within about six months, only to see the horizon recede. This serial misjudgment is the result not of unforeseeable events, but of a failure to grasp the strength and global nature of the deflationary forces now shaping the economy.

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