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Will Corruption Sink EU Convergence?

The economic divergence between Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union and those that did not is one of the more underappreciated geopolitical developments of the past 30 years. But those that did join are now backsliding on essential democratic criteria, with worrying implications for the bloc.

WASHINGTON, DC – The great French historian Fernand Braudel taught us to look for the underappreciated long waves (longue durée) in history. In the context of the past 30 years, one such wave is the widening economic gap between the Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union and those that have not. The former are gradually catching up with the other EU member states, with growth rates nearly twice as high as their eastern neighbors; the latter are stuck in a no-man’s land between the EU and Russia.

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