Saturday, August 23, 2014
6

2013年经济的基本面

发自纽约——今年全球经济将会展现出与2012年经济环境的若干相似之处。这并不让人吃惊:我们面临着又一个全球经济增长平均只得3%的年份,但各国的复苏速度并不相同——发达国家的增长率低于平均水平,仅有1%且不断下滑,而新兴市场的增长率则为5%,依然维持升势。但这中间也存在着一些重要的差别。

令人痛苦的去杠杆化过程——必须减少消费提高储蓄才能降低债务和杠杆——依然在很多发达国家中经历着,这意味着较为缓慢的经济增长。但今年财政紧缩会遍布大部分发达国家,而不仅仅是欧元区外围国家和英国。的确,财政紧缩正慢慢渗入到欧元区中心、美国及其他发达国家(日本除外)。鉴于大部分发达国家同步进行财政紧缩,某些国家下一年的温和增长会让位于彻底的紧缩。

随着大部分发达国家经济增长乏力,始于2012年下半年的高风险资产价格回升并非源自于基本面的改善,而是受到新一轮的非常规货币政策驱动。大多数重要发达国家的央行——比如欧洲央行、美联储、英格兰银行、瑞士国家银行——都忙于实施某种形式的定量宽松政策,而日本央行很有可能会加入这种大潮——首相安倍晋三领导的新政府致力于推动实施更加非常规的政策。

此外,以后还会有几个风险等着我们。首先,美国在税收问题上的迷你协议未能完全避开财政悬崖。早晚有一天,在债务上限、对支出的延迟暂缓和国会的“持续支出方案”(一项允许政府在缺乏拨款法案的情况下继续运作的协议)上会出现另一场不光彩的争斗。市场可能会被又一个财政悬念吓坏了。甚至当前的迷你协议都意味着对经济的严重拖累——约为GDP的1.4%——何况该经济体在过去几个季度也仅是以2%的速度增长。

其次,虽然欧洲央行的行动减少了欧元区尾部风险——希腊的退出以及意大利和西班牙丢失市场准入权的丧失——货币联盟的根本问题并未解决。加上政治上的不确定性,这些问题都将会在今年下半年全面重新凸显出来。

毕竟,停滞和彻底衰退——在前期施行的财政紧缩、强势欧元以及正在持续的信贷危机的影响下不断恶化——成了欧洲经济的常态。结果,大量且潜在不稳定的私人股票和公共债务依然存在。此外,鉴于人口老龄化和低生产率增长,且缺乏用以提高竞争力的更激进结构性改革,潜在产出很有可能会被侵蚀,这就使得私人企业没有理由去支持长期的经常项目赤字。

第三,目前中国不得不依靠新一轮的货币、财政和信贷刺激来支撑其不平衡且不持续的增长模式,其增长过去一直依赖于过度出口和固定投资、高储蓄和低消费。今年下半年之前,在房地产、基础设施和工业产能上的破产会将加速。而且由于中国的新领导层——保守、渐进、共识驱动——不大可能加快实施增加家庭收入和减少预防性储蓄所需的改革,消费占GDP比例将不会上升得快到足以弥补其损失。所以今年年底出现硬着陆的风险会上升。

第四,很多新兴市场——包括金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国),还有其他许多国家——如今都正在经历减速增长。它们的“国家资本主义”——国有企业的重要作用;更重要的国有银行作用;资源民族主义;进口替代品工业化;金融保护主义并控制外国直接投资——是问题的核心。它们是否会拥护旨在提高私企在经济增长角色的改革还有待观察。

最终,严重的地缘政治风险日益凸显。整个大中东地区——从马格里布到阿富汗和巴基斯坦——在社会、经济和政治上都不稳定。确实,阿拉伯之春正在变成阿拉伯之冬。虽然以色列、美国与伊朗之间不大可能出现直接的军事冲突,但很明显谈判和制裁不能促使伊朗领导人放弃发展核武器。由于以色列拒绝接受拥有核武器的伊朗,它的耐心正逐渐消失,而实际战争的鼓声正越敲越响。石油市场的恐慌性溢价可能会显著上升,因而引起石油价格上涨20%,这就会导致美国、欧洲、日本、中国、印度和所有其他石油净进口的发达国家及新兴市场出现负增长效应。

虽然出现完美风暴的可能性——所有的风险都以它们最致命的形式出现——非常低,它们当中任何一个风险都足以拖累全球经济并导致衰退。虽然这些风险可能不会以最极端的方式出现,每个风险都将会以某种形式出现。随着2013年开始,全球经济的下跌风险正在增加。

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  1. CommentedSimon Edwards

    All sensisble intelligent musings on the downsized risks -but part of the risk never outlined by economists is"the self fulfilling prohecy" - economists and forecasters as well as the media focus too much on the possibe downside and very little on the potential upside. Afterall being right in the new world culture of finance with regards to optimisim is terribly unfashionable. We only hear of economists in the past 7 years who predicted "the tech bubble" "the housing crisis" " the credit crisis" and so on. indeed in the press their names are often followed by "he who correctly predicted the xxx crisis". These forecasters set a tone, a tone which i feel spreads a contagion of fear rippling through the wider financial markets - this prevents mum and dad moving house, banks lending to business, governments investing into infrastrcuture. A pervasive culture of fear irrationaly takes hold, which is then fuelled by negative sentiment. fundamentals are fundamentals but human emotion can change momentum more than any form of credit easing can. To dao that we need to look more are the upside and limit the volume - we know bad news sells and correct domesday perfect storm prjections make economists famous overnight - but even a stopped cock is right twice a day - call it enough and it might well happen. Where i work in london its the first year in a long time we have come back to work with some sense of optimisim, we are aware of the risks, what we are trying to do is promote the opportunities. Mr Roubini, i would ask for you to examine the fundamentals and to counter this article with your reasons to be optimistic - if we really cant find any at all then perhaps we should draw up the bridge, man the battlements and await the prohecy that is yet again financial armageddon

  2. CommentedVictor Morris

    Painful deleveraging might counterballance inflation. What to watch is the change in the petrodollar arrangement.

  3. CommentedTimothy Williamson

    These are good points Nouriel. My concern is that we are not looking forward with a long range purpose or vision, but are rather expending energy de-constructing currnet and recent historical problems. This is all very good, but when we put the pieces back together after de-construction, we tend to do so linerarly. The economy though is complex and non-linerar and requires a metacognitive shift in thinking.

    Though I agree that there is a need to study systemic patterns, as our world becomes more and more interconnected beyond traditional borders the need also increases for a big visionary purpose or project toward which vast segments of our GLOBAL society can direct effort and energy.

    Recently, I did a study on three big projects from the past to look for common characteristics. Those three projects were the Panama Canal, the Manhattan Project, and Kennedy's Landing a man on the Moon project. There are two parts. The first part linked here is presentation. The second part is the full report linked in the presentation.

    http://bit.ly/XS6M8C Human Complexity-Creating Sustainable Local Growth

    Thanks!
    Tim Williamson
    tim@williamsoncontracting.biz

  4. Portrait of Pingfan Hong

    CommentedPingfan Hong

    Another piece quite consistent with the title you have earned. Nevertheless, I am wondering about the consistency between your analysis of the economic woes in developed economies and your analysis of the problems in emerging economies. In the former, you seem to blame the free market, or a lack of more fiscal stimulus for the anaemic growth, while in the latter, you criticize strong government intervention in emerging economies. No one is Doing a correct thing. In your view, can the world do something right at all?

  5. CommentedYK Chang

    Very thoughtful article! Risks are shown from the US, Europe, China, to Middle East and other emerging economies. The problem, I think, is where to find growth. Without it, the world economy will go around vicious cycle form debt to quantitative easing. We're in a very thick mist, dismayed at economic failure, let alone political failure. Whenever we face confusion, we need to rely on history, where we can find some hints and sigh with a little relief that such a calamity always happens, but humankind always find a way to circumvent it. It's time to pull ourselves up and remind ourselves that "we can do it". Hit the road to find "HOW"

      CommentedTimothy Williamson

      @YK Chang - Here's a way toward a better more prosperous and peaceful future in a hyper-connected world http://bit.ly/XS6M8C

      Thanks!

      Tim Williamson
      tim@williamsoncontracting.biz

      CommentedLuke Ho-Hyung Lee

      @YK Chang - Could I suggest you see this article for "HOW"? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hohyung-/hidden-flaw-holding-back_b_2218943.html

  6. Commenteddonna jorgo

    reading your article i have to say ..USA problem after president B.H. OBAMA SWERE IN WHITE HOUSE all the MIDDLE EAST oil will be to USA.profit.
    EU have political problem and i think will continue for long time because UK are right for the long term economic truble EU have .
    JAPAN is one country with ''synithia'' inflation long term too.
    IF the economu will fix with this ''RITHMO'' i have to believ in MIRACLE .
    Israel is not the only state who IS NOT AGREE with NUCLEAR TO IRAN ..
    JEWISH STATE is very strong and because others trying to have up hand ..
    about the economic situation in global i am agree with you
    I THINK structura economice is in phase for change and this is important will take time with pain for the poor people ..(dead) and pain for the middle class people (in hospital)
    thank you

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