Saturday, August 29, 2015
  1. Economics

    Why the Fed Should Postpone Rate Hikes

    Anders Borg
    Economics

    Why the Fed Should Postpone Rate Hikes

    2

     warns that policymakers lose credibility when they fail to adapt to changing realities.

    Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

    As central bankers from around the world gather this week in Jackson Hole for the Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, one key topic of discussion will be the current global stock-market turmoil. But financial volatility is only one reason why the Fed should not raise interest rates this year. READ MORE

  2. Economics

    A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening

    J. Bradford DeLong
    Economics

    A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening

    5

     points out that the last four episodes reduced employment and output far more than anticipated.

    Janet Yellen Ron Sachs/ZumaPress

    The US Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy four times in the past 40 years, and all four time the impact on the economy was more harmful than expected. As the Fed prepares to tighten monetary policy once again, an examination of this history suggests that the US is about to enter dangerous territory. READ MORE

  3. Business & Finance

    Cheap Oil and Global Growth

    Anatole Kaletsky
    Business & Finance

    Cheap Oil and Global Growth

    3

     refutes the claim that the latest fall in oil prices is a harbinger of recession.

    pumpjack oil drilling site Mint Images/ZumaPress

    The standard explanation is weak Chinese demand, with the oil-price collapse widely regarded as a portent of recession, either in China or for the entire global economy. But this is almost certainly wrong: On all recent occasions when the oil price was halved, faster global growth followed. READ MORE

  4. Business & Finance

    A Financial Early-Warning System

    Nouriel Roubini
    Business & Finance

    A Financial Early-Warning System

    14

     proposes a systematic alternative to error-prone markets and ratings agencies.

    wave crashing into sea wall Ian Forsyth/ZumaPress

    Recent market volatility – in emerging and developed economies alike – is showing once again how badly ratings agencies and investors can err in assessing countries’ economic and financial vulnerabilities. More than ever, the world needs an early-warning system for financial tsunamis. READ MORE

  5. Economics

    What Should China Do?

    Michael J. Boskin
    Economics

    What Should China Do?

    7

     underscores the danger to long-term stability implied by reversion to state control of the economy.

    Xi Jinping Rao Aimin/ZumaPress

    China’s government has a lot on its plate as it attempts to ease the short-term effects of an economic slowdown while implementing reforms aimed at smoothing the shift to a new growth model. The main danger, glimpsed in the authorities' ham-fisted response to the recent fall in equity prices, is a reversion to greater state control. READ MORE

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