Monday, September 1, 2014
5

Los riesgos a la baja del repunte

RIO DE JANEIRO - Desde finales del año pasado, una serie de acontecimientos positivos ha impulsado la confianza de los inversores y llevó a un marcado incremento en los activos de riesgo, partiendo por los valores globales y las materias primas. Mejoraron los datos macroeconómicos de Estados Unidos y las empresas de primera línea de las economías avanzadas han seguido siendo muy rentables. China y los mercados emergentes se desaceleraron moderadamente, y se redujo el riesgo de una suspensión de pagos caótica y/o la salida de algunos miembros de la eurozona.

Más aún, bajo su nuevo presidente, Mario Draghi, el Banco Central Europeo parece dispuesto a hacer todo lo necesario para reducir el estrés en el sistema bancario y los gobiernos de la eurozona, así como reducir las tasas de interés. Los bancos centrales de las economías avanzadas y emergentes han proporcionado grandes inyecciones de liquidez. La volatilidad es baja, la confianza aumenta y la aversión al riesgo es mucho menor... por ahora.

Pero por lo menos este año es probable que se hagan realidad cuatro riesgos a la baja, socavando el crecimiento global y finalmente afectando negativamente la confianza de los inversores y las valoraciones del mercado de los activos de riesgo.

En primer lugar, la eurozona se encuentra en una profunda recesión, especialmente en la periferia, pero ahora también en las economías centrales, ya que los datos más recientes muestran una contracción de la producción en Alemania y Francia. La crisis del crédito en el sistema bancario se agrava cada vez más, al tiempo que los bancos reducen el apalancamiento mediante la venta de activos y el racionamiento del crédito, lo que profundiza la recesión.

Mientras tanto, la austeridad fiscal no solo está empujando la periferia de la eurozona a una caída libre económica, sino que la pérdida de competitividad persistirá a medida que el alivio ante la menor perspectiva de una suspensión de pagos caótica refuerza el valor del euro. Para restablecer la competitividad y el crecimiento en estos países, el euro tiene que bajar hacia la paridad con el dólar de EE.UU. Y, si bien disminuye el riesgo de un colapso desordenado, resurgirá este año a medida que la inestabilidad política, los disturbios civiles y más austeridad fiscal conviertan la recesión griega en una depresión.

En segundo lugar, hay evidencias de la pérdida de dinamismo de China y el resto de Asia. En China, la desaceleración económica en curso es inconfundible. El crecimiento de las exportaciones se ha reducido considerablemente, volviéndose negativo con respecto a la periferia de la eurozona. También ha caído el crecimiento de las importaciones, que es una señal de las exportaciones futuras. 

Del mismo modo, la actividad de inversión china en bienes raíces residenciales y comerciales se está reduciendo drásticamente, a medida que los precios de la vivienda empiezan a caer. La inversión en infraestructura también se ha reducido, con muchos proyectos ferroviarios de alta velocidad en espera, y los gobiernos locales y las entidades creadas con fines específicos se enfrentan a dificultades para obtener financiamiento en medio de condiciones de crédito más exigentes y menores ingresos por la venta de tierras.

En otras partes de Asia, la economía de Singapur se contrajo por segunda vez en tres trimestres a finales de 2011. El gobierno de la India predice un 6,9% de crecimiento anual del PIB en 2012, lo que sería la tasa más baja desde 2009. La economía de Taiwán cayó en recesión técnica en el cuarto trimestre de 2011. La economía surcoreana creció apenas un 0,4% en el mismo período -el ritmo más lento en dos años- mientras que el PIB de Japón se contrajo un 2,3%, mayor que lo esperado, ya que la solidez del yen lastró las exportaciones.

En tercer lugar, si bien los indicadores estadounidenses han sido sorprendentemente alentadores, el impulso de crecimiento de EE.UU. parece estar llegando a su máximo. El ajuste fiscal se intensificará en 2012 y 2013, contribuyendo a una desaceleración, al igual que la caducación de los beneficios fiscales que impulsaron el gasto de capital en 2011. Más aún, dado el constante malestar en los mercados del crédito y la vivienda, el consumo privado se mantendrá débil; de hecho, dos puntos porcentuales de la expansión del 2,8% en el último trimestre de 2011 reflejaron el aumento de inventarios en lugar de ventas finales. Y en cuanto a la demanda externa, el dólar en general fuerte, junto con la desaceleración mundial y de la eurozona, debilitará las exportaciones estadounidenses, mientras que los aún elevados precios del petróleo incrementarán los costes de importación de energía, lo cual contribuirá aún más a impedir el crecimiento.

Por último, se están elevando los riesgos geopolíticos en Oriente Próximo, debido a la posibilidad de una respuesta militar israelí a las ambiciones nucleares de Irán. Si bien el riesgo de un conflicto armado sigue siendo bajo, está aumentando de intensidad la actual guerra de palabras, al igual que la guerra encubierta que Israel y EE.UU. han emprendido contra Irán, que ahora contraataca con ataques terroristas contra diplomáticos israelíes. La República Islámica, con la espalda contra la pared por los efectos de las sanciones, también podría reaccionar hundiendo algunos barcos para bloquear el estrecho de Ormuz, o dando rienda suelta a sus agentes en la región: los chiíes pro-iraníes de Irak, Bahréin, Kuwait y Arabia Saudita, así como Hezbolá en el Líbano y Hamas en Gaza.

Por otra parte, existen en Oriente Próximo tensiones geopolíticas más amplias que podrían intensificarse. La Primavera Árabe ha tenido un resultado relativamente positivo en Túnez, donde comenzó, pero los acontecimientos en Egipto, Libia y Yemen siguen siendo mucho más inciertos, y Siria se encuentra al borde de la guerra civil. Además, existen importantes preocupaciones acerca de la estabilidad política en Bahréin y la Provincia Oriental, rica en petróleo, de Arabia Saudita y potencialmente incluso en Kuwait y Jordania... todas áreas con una sustancial población chií u otros grupos conflictivos.

Más allá de los países afectados por la Primavera Árabe, las crecientes tensiones entre chiíes, kurdos y suníes en Irak desde la retirada de los EE.UU. no permiten esperar un aumento en la producción de petróleo. También está el conflicto entre israelíes y palestinos, así como las tensiones entre Israel y Turquía.

En otras palabras, hay mucho que podrían salir mal en Oriente Próximo, y cualquier combinación de estos factores podría avivar la alarma en los mercados y llevar a precios del petróleo mucho más altos. A pesar del débil crecimiento económico en las economías avanzadas y una desaceleración en muchos mercados emergentes, el petróleo ya está en alrededor de $100 por barril. Pero los temores podrían elevarlo mucho más, con efectos previsiblemente negativos sobre la economía mundial.

Con tantos riesgos en tantos lugares, los inversionistas, como es lógico, finalmente preferirán la liquidez en sus carteras y rehuirán los activos fijos más riesgosos nuevamente cuando estos riesgos de cola se materialicen. Esa es otra razón para creer que la economía mundial está lejos de alcanzar una recuperación equilibrada y sostenible.

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  1. CommentedJonathan Lam

    Gamesmsith94134: Free-Trade Blinders
    Njweatherdon,

    “The experiment is based on somewhat of a false premise, because it speaks to an American audience where the lower class is currently the one facing the most challenges from free trade.”

    Since I do not have the figures to knick around, and I would explain Dani Rodrik’s experiment for its natural scientific reasoning like ones I wrote above my paradigm on the wealth circuitry in economical and social growth that supports and balances both accumulated wealth and consumable wealth; and it created a “Z” shaped financial development running both on the diminishing demand and diminishing return; which is based on the assumption, the route above the standard of living equal in length with the one below the standard of living is in agreement of its living standard to sustain a viable growth; and Societal changes due to the democracy on globalization. In assimilation, the shift of wealth circuitry make the redistribution of wealth from the developed nations, like US, EU, to the emerging market nations like China, India or Brazil. It would show how the wealth circuitry globally settling the living standard inequality to balance itself through the diminishing return as in welfare states or communistic position, and the diminishing demand as in capitalistic position when each maximized it top or bottom setting to its extreme. Since the ladder of growth with those defined the value and price expanded and extended its living standards in either ways, it develops a newer term of demand or supply to shift the advancement of living standard after inflation or deflation.

    Perhaps, it is observable that American turned welfare state that its economy turn anemic with some 1% loaded with wealth and 99% struggle to strive above the living standard that held itself to a diminishing demand. In reverse, the diminishing return states like communistic China benefits its labors after the globalization; their living standard rose after 20% increased salary and so is the demands of goods internally and externally. Now, Asian purchased 50% of the luxury good EU produced. Then, it is how the Capitalist turns communist, and communist turns capitalist; as much of the inequality of the living standard of the two combined to merge, the expansion of the global economy may reverse itself that a cycle of accumulated wealth circuitry is completed and the standard of living is moving with the strength of the frequency of the flow of wealth that is kept in it wealth accumulated circuitry in a long run. Perhaps, it is not “The question of who wins and who loses is always important, but it's not always the educated and wealthy who win in free trade and it's not always the poor who lose in free trade. All those manufacturing jobs going overseas?” as you said when these inequality living standard make the world goes around with globalization and free trade.

    In conclusion, there are deficiencies of both capitalism and communism in handling the accumulated wealth because of the agency and structure in societal developments due to a fact of the productivity model that each bounded to a death end for either a diminishing return or diminishing demand. We may always laugh at the communists for it insufficient supply; but if we understand better of our recession to depression for its lack of demand too. It is not the dogma that kept its economy stood still, but the accumulated wealth makes the world goes around.

    Perhaps, democracy and free trade is the motion of the cash flows in politics for its populace and they do affect nations of wealth globally. To-day, topsy-turvy is the diminishing return and diminishing demand are marginally reversing themselves when the all living standard merging themselves in creating the globalization and democracy setting in motion to make fee trade in balancing the outcome. When I ask why should US dominate the higher profitable in trading the high tech if it aborts its blue collars workers, or did it turn itself into welfare state by giving the rich ones another break? If US is not attempt to make its appropriate living standard for its people in lesser welfare state, the globalization and democracy will downgrade its status as developed nation to underdeveloped whether it will sustain its free trade environment or not. God bless America.

    “But democracies owe themselves a proper debate, so that they make such choices consciously and deliberately. Fetishizing globalization simply because it expands the economic pie is the surest way to delegitimize it in the long run.” Said Dani Rodrik.

    And, may the Buddha bless you too?

  2. CommentedJonathan Lam

    Gamesmith94134: Dr. Doom Warns Wall Street and Washington---- Heed Karl Marx's Warning!
    Mr. Gert van Vugt,

    You make the best description on the theory on the economical growth Paradigm that the economic change seems like Malthusian’s diminishing return, and I agree. However, Mr. Roubini makes his point on the social disruption reverse itself through the diminishing demand. If we can put away the elements like the Ponzi scheme and benefactors in social caused deficiency or defects to growth. Corruption by capitalism and the dependency by socialism among societies both caused failure in the economical and societal development.

    Perhaps, we focus on the circuitry on the accumulation of wealth and consumable wealth that runs the economy. It seems both the capitalism and socialism ran short and proven wrong in the economical model or social model that became self-destructive; eventually, the economy runs from diminishing demand to diminishing return, or vice versa. So, if we use the living standard as the equilibrium position to the supply line of the circuitry of wealth balanced by both of the diminishing return and diminishing demand.

    How about I call my paradigm on the wealth circuitry in economical and social growth that supports and balances both accumulated wealth and consumable wealth; and it created a “Z” shaped development running both on the diminishing demand and diminishing return; which is based on the assumption, the route above the standard of living equal in length with the one below the standard of living is in agreement of its living standard to sustain a viable growth, which contains;

    • The base line as the diminishing return where the societies kept peace with its populace that consumable wealth that cause economical displacement like with its negative growth or no growth; it provides entitlement or social programs with non-productive individual citizens for example, 27% of its population on welfare with add-on with subsidies to sustain a standard of living.

    • The top line as the diminishing demand that ended with accumulated wealth favors of concentrated wealth owned by individuals that ended with profitless, 1% holds 27% of the global or national wealth, plus those with extra wealth is not in production yields to no growth.

    • And the diagonal line that connected to both ends is the support of the price and value in the middle is the standard of living which contains the most of the productive individuals who is moving up and down the ladder of growth.

    If more of the wealth accumulated than the wealth consumed, then it causes saturation of the wealth. The diminishing demand under the standard of living agreement made the demand idle because of the shortage of consumption. In the process, the standard of living will go down to meet its demand after the deflationary measure to make it consumable. In reverse, the wealth consumed is over the wealth accumulated, as it is less profitable. Then, it triggers the inflationary measures to aggregate demand to accumulate more wealth in its diminishing return mode; eventually it will balance itself again with the agreement of the standard living with a viable growth.

    It is not the supply and demand. It is rather the circuitry of wealth under the spells of the lower living standard that diminishing demand is being part of the deflationary measure. If the accumulated wealth became saturated, then it means the lower living standard that made the demand finite like lesser demand in loan of dollars in ECB.
    I am certain I am not being introspective; I may twist the theory a little; but the proof of the lower living standard in Europe made it plausible.

    May the Buddha bless you?

  3. CommentedLuis A. Guerra

    I am not so sure about the growth anymore and further, I have become sceptic about any official data. In turn people like Mr. Biderman here make sense. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_lsEAsETdoo

  4. CommentedPaul A. Myers

    Roubini has provided an excellent tour de horizon of the many risks facing the world economy. Against this we should state a contrary case to understand the investment potential available to investors. Above all world markets increasingly prize stability. If the world economy has reasonable stability over the next couple of years, investment returns could imaginably be above trend.

    First, problems in the Middle East. There are many but it is quite possible that since there are so many problems crowded into this space that there is a self-canceling dimension to this mare's nest of problems. If there is an oil price spike, buy on the correction? If oil goes up gradually, it moves the world economy towards more efficiency, probably a better thing. Vindicates everyone's alternative energy strategies. Last point for this region, except for the export of oil, the economies of these countries are of almost no statistical significance to the world economy (which is what a lot of the anger is all about).

    Europe is muddling, but one suspects as the year goes on there will be some real action on putting some money into the periphery to get growth going again. The austerity arguments, like a long staying mother-in-law, are wearing out their welcome (and politicians are going to start losing elections because of this; so where reason fails, elections will start to tell).

    The US economy is very strongly grounded in private sector job creation. So like the the tortoise, it may be slow but it will be quite sure at delivering real results. Housing will be a bluebird to the upside--eventually! Obama's reelection is looking like a dead certainty--and this man radiates stability, the tonic needed.

    China and Asia? A valuation problem, I think. Just how large and significant are the nonperforming loans and unproductive investments? No idea. But a 40 percent savings rate buries a lot of mistakes. If the worldwide emerging market countries are going to carry a bigger load for making prosperity happen, then possibly those economies are going to have to gear down and put more horsepower into each percentage point of real growth. So as an investor, are we overpaying today to get into these investments or are we paying a fair price? Don't know. Time to dollar-average-in over the next 24 months, methinks.

    How about those seas of liquidity? Yes, a real problem if eventually the money stays on the table and inflation rises. In that case I think the place to be is as the owner of a worldwide portfolio of productive assets, not a holder of depreciating short-term obligations.

    The productive economies almost everywhere are going to be more powerful than the paper-based governments.

  5. CommentedLuke Ho-Hyung Lee

    I have different views and analysis on the global economy.

    Geometrically progressive market changes have already been made by the rapid growth of synergy software applications over the last 20 to 30 years. Yet, the market results made through the market paradigm (or process) that comprised existing functional market systems could only have produced arithmetical changes.

    As market changes could only be satisfied through the existing functional market paradigm, “a structural gap” has existed in the market. As I show in detail elsewhere [ http://savingtheworldeconomy.blogspot.com/ ], this is the real cause of the economic and social malaise which currently afflicts us.

    I believe the only viable remedy for this structural gap will be by intentionally inducing synergistic (or geometrically progressive) market results in the market paradigm (or process).

    Until then, there will be no balanced and sustainable recovery.

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