Two wrongs don’t make a right. Just because European governments have failed to put bread on their constituents’ tables doesn’t mean that the European Central Bank should likewise fail in its job of promoting price stability in the euro zone. That may sound obvious, but abandoning price stability is exactly what some European politicians are advocating.

For example, Italian politicians, who, given Italy’s recent dismal economic performance, would seem the least qualified to offer the ECB advice on monetary policy, are nonetheless advocating interest-rate cuts. Echoing comments by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Deputy Economics Minister Mario Baldassarri said in Il Sole 24 Ore last week that all efforts to boost growth are in vain “if someone is pushing on the brake pedal.”

Who’s he kidding? If anyone is “pushing down on the Italian growth brake” it is Berlusconi himself. He has made no efforts at economic reform during his term and now seeks to blame the ECB for Italy’s lame economic performance. But it is precisely the lack of economic reform at home that has made Italy one of the least competitive states in the euro-zone economy.

More than the usual “blame game” is at work here. Pressures are mounting on the ECB to raise interest rates – and Berlusconi and Co.’s attacks are as much as an attempt to forestall future rate hikes as to get the ECB to loosen its monetary policy.

Soaring energy prices, for example, have become a leading inflation risk. But higher energy prices, by themselves, will not cause the ECB to pull the interest-rate trigger. The key will be so-called “second-round effects” – whether growing crude prices lead to higher wage demands from trade unions.

So far, the “social partners,” as ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet likes to call the unions, have been quiet. Should this change, the ECB will have to raise rates even if Europe’s economic growth remains slack.

The good news is that economic growth in the euro-zone economy appears to be picking up (even in Italy). Though second-quarter GDP growth was weak — the euro-zone average was only 0.3% year on year – third-quarter data are indicating a sustained economic pick-up in the second half of the year. Only consumption is lagging.

How will the ECB react to better economic news? Some on the Governing Council have grown uncomfortable that euro-zone interest rates have stayed so low, at 2%, for so long (more than two years). True, there is no inflation problem in the short run, but the ECB’s monetary policy focuses on the medium term.

One particular worry is that euro-zone money supply is well above the ECB’s benchmark level, indicating an excess supply of liquidity. It is doubtful that the ECB would raise interest rates to curb excess liquidity so long as economic recovery remains in question. Slow growth has silenced the monetarists on the ECB’s Governing Council. This will change, however, once the economic pick-up is confirmed. Interest-rate hikes may be coming sooner rather than later, which is why Berlusconi and French President Jacques Chirac are talking up interest-rate cuts now.

Meanwhile, in Germany, the elections this September may have surprising consequences for ECB monetary policy. Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrats’ candidate, is a reformer, holding out hope for Germany’s future – and that of Europe.

Unfortunately, Merkel’s campaign is off to a rocky start, and the recent entry of Oskar Lafontaine’s extreme left-wing party into the fray may necessitate the formation of a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats.

This would be bad news for the German economy, which could delay possible ECB interest rate hikes. Because the expected gridlock in parliament would make reforms less likely, companies might hold off on investment, while consumers would be more likely to keep their wallets closed, because official policy would be even less clear than it is now.

On the other hand, a center-right coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats could spark the ECB into action.

This raises an interesting point. The public should be relieved if the ECB raises rates, because this would most likely signal that the long-awaited economic recovery is well under way, and that inflationary repercussions are being addressed. A hike, in other words, would indicate that good things are happening.

But the public often views interest-rate increases as negative events that increase unemployment and stifle growth. Blame-game politicians like Berlusconi, who have failed to put bread on the table, their minions in the media, and Keynesian economic professors who don’t understand and misrepresent Keynes sustain this distorted view. Europe would be a lot better off if someone told the public the truth.