米兰—市场和资本主义激励在促进市场效率、增长和创新方面具有很大的优势。哈佛大学的本·弗里德曼(Ben Friedman)在其2006年的著作《增长的道德后果》(The Moral Consequences of Growth)中令人信服地指出,经济增长对开放的民主社会来说是大好事。但市场和资本主义激励在保证稳定、平等和可持续性方面有着显而易见的劣势,而这会对政治和社会凝聚力造成不利影响。
显然,抛弃市场-资本主义体系——因而也抛弃了增长——绝非现实选择。总的来说,我们别无选择,只能尽力调整市场-资本主义体系,使之适应变化的技术和全球条件,从而获得稳定、平等(就机会和结果等方面而言)和可持续性。在这三个目标中,可持续性大概是最复杂、最具挑战性的一个。
对许多人来说,可持续性伴随着有限的自然资源和环境。在未来25年中,全球经济规模可能会翻三倍,主要的增长动力来自发展中国家,它们将赶超发达国家的收入水平,并采用和发达国家相似的消费模式。因此,人们开始担心,地球的(广义)自然资源和自我修复能力将不堪重负。
有些人因此推论,问题出在增长上,而解决办法就是更少的增长。但是,在发展中国家,只有持续增长才能让人们摆脱贫困,限制增长绝不是答案。替代方案是改变增长模式,从而减少高水平经济活动对自然资源和环境的冲击。
但我们找不到适用所有人的现成替代方案。改变增长模式意味着从补充性部分开始逐渐逐步地发明新模式。其中的两大关键要素是教育和价值。所有人(不光是决策者)需要理解个体和集体选择的后果。我们需要小心(比如)人口增长和消费水平的代际后果,也要小心我们如何对待自己将影响我们子辈和孙辈的生活方式的机会。
迄今未知,我们的选择的质量并不令人信服,并未体现出多少对可持续性和我们的选择对子孙后代所造成的影响的顾忌。结果,许多发达国家囤积了非常危险的巨额债务和比债务还要巨大的非债务负债,而这些都是由不可持续的增长模式造成的。
我认为,我们当中大多数人是在不知情中做出会给子孙后代带来不良影响的选择的。因此,罪魁祸首也许是对我们选择的后果的不完全知识。此外,入不敷出的模式一旦染上便很难戒除,因为,从某个时点开始,当前一代需要为过去的承诺买单,并开始为子孙后代储蓄。这看起来破不公平,因为的确如此。
大部分人会同意,通过入不敷出的社会保障和保险和对资源的滥用实现在总量上超过应有水平的生活水平会给子孙后代造成负担。但我们没有就谁应该为这些项目掏钱,或谁应该为削减我们的资源消费负责达成一致。将分配问题留给本人不在场、又没有足够的代表者的群体解决要容易得多。
教育和价值是合理个人选择——最终是集体选择——的基石。经济学家所正确指出,要想增加能源效率、限制碳排放、节约水资源等目标,我们需要各种激励和政策,而没有教育和价值,这些激励和政策就得不到支持,在民主决策过程中流产。
可持续性要想获得胜利,必须来一次自下而上的过程。环保主义者重视教育和个人选择是完全正确的,尽管他们的政策主张并不是个个都在点子上。教育和价值能推动地方创新,改变生活方式,转变社会范式。教育和价值还能通过消费者和雇员(包括企业领导)选择改变企业行为。因此,教育和价值是追求可持续增长模式所需办法的关键成分。
但是,教育和价值是必要而非充分条件。补充性国家政策和国际协议将要求仔细的科学和经济分析和深思熟虑的选择。各国(特别是发达国家和发展中国家间)共担责任的需要不会一夜消失。气候变化风险固然严重,但并不是可持续性日程的全部。
有几个显而易见的步骤需要迈出。合理的监管和足够长期的视界能够让各种结构更加节能,而且不会造成重大负担。类似地,运输也可以在不影响移动性能的条件下减少能源密集程度。一些变革需要国际合作,以避免不利的现实上或感觉上的竞争性后果。
但过度合作并非好事。这就是为什么气候变化谈判从追求高风险的限制碳排放目标的50年承诺这一被误导的目标转为关注平行开展的逐步过程——包括更高的能源效率、更佳的城市规划、更好的运输系统——以及不断学习。类似地,大量使用水资源的企业和产业在面临稀缺时也会开发出新技术并实现繁荣。
人口众多的亚洲——以及所有发展中国家——越来越清醒地认识到,可持续性是实现其长期增长目标的关键,这有助于全世界的进步。这一幕是快速增长环境的自然产物,因为其增长模式要求不断地反省和调整,以实现可持续性。
随着知识的获得和传播,价值也会随时间而改变。然后,以可持续性为目标的政策也会随之而来。现在需要的是,我们是否能足够快地来到这一时刻,从而避免大破坏甚至是潜在的冲突。


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Terry Mock
"Sustainability may be the most complex and challenging" - Yes, so let's "adapt the system" by using the industry-developed SLDI Code: The World’s First Sustainable Development Decision Model that is symbolized as a universal geometrical algorithm that balances and integrates the triple-bottom line needs of people, planet and profit into a holistic, fractal model that becomes increasingly detailed, guiding effective decisions throughout the community planning, financing, design, regulating, construction and maintenance processes while always enabling project context to drive specific decisions. http://www.triplepundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/THE-FRACTAL-FRONTIER.pdf
Sustainable Land Development Initiative
http://www.triplepundit.com/author/sldi/
David Bell
Hi Mike,
This is beautifully written, and succinctly lands some very important points.
Your emphasis on education and values is spot on – though I agree that they are necessary but not sufficient underpinnings of sustainability. I used precisely the same formulation in the conclusion to my book chapter (see p. 21ff.) entitled “Education for Sustainable Development: Cure or Placebo?” - see http://www.lsf-lst.ca/en/what-is-esd/related-research-papers. Ultimately we require a global “culture of sustainability” in order to provide the foundation for sustainability-based wise choices, decisions and policies in the economy, political system, and society generally.
I am reminded of the scenario exercise conducted a number of years ago by the World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD). They outlined three main scenarios, each of which was premised on the increasing environmental toll of economic activity.
The first scenario (“FROG”) led to environmental disaster. Business As Usual continued under the banner “Forever Recognize Our Growth”. The double entendre of the title referred to the idea that a frog placed in lukewarm water that is gradually heated to the boiling point will fail to “pick up the signals” and instead of jumping our of the pot, will eventually die. By analogy, the global environment in this scenario deteriorates beyond critical thresholds because governments, businesses, and society in general fail to “pick up the signals” in time to avert tragedy. (Cf. the last sentence of your piece!).
In the second scenario, GEO, the signals are picked up in time and draconian action is taken under the aegis of a Global Environmental Organization that is given sufficient authority and power to regulate and legislate the world’s businesses, governments and individuals to behave more sustainably. Disaster is averted.
The third scenario was much preferred. Entitled JAZZ, it entailed a transformation of behaviour achieved through the influence of education and value change rather than through the power and authority of an all powerful global regulatory body. (I’m using these terms as defined in my book Power, Influence and Authority: An Essay in Political Linguistics.) Jazz in this case is not an acronym but a metaphor. Jazz musicians are able to co-create music spontaneously and collaboratively by improvising on a structure outlined in a shared “chart” that shows the melody and chord changes. By analogy, in the JAZZ scenario businesses, governments and citizens/consumers/householders would all be “on the same page” because they would all understand sustainability imperatives and would share the values needed to coordinate actions to achieve sustainable outcomes. Pretty far fetched to be sure, but an intriguing idea. What strikes me as useful in this scenario is the notion that a culture shift toward sustainability would make it a lot easier for both businesses and governments to adopt appropriate policies and decisions.
Another key point you raise is the challenge of developing a more sustainable alternative to the growth model. Basically I think we have somehow to effect a transition from 20th century capitalism to 21st century sustainable enterprise. But what does this entail? I’m sure you are correct that this transition will require plenty of invention and innovation (or what I referred to in an earlier comment as “sustainability ingenuity”.) As you pointed out in your comments back to me, lots of the requisite ingenuity appears to be going on. But how much more is needed? How can we hasten it along? And what will a sustainable economy look like?
I think we have a fair idea of the “design specs” for a sustainable economy. At minimum I think a sustainable economy must:
• Create sustainable livelihoods for (most of) the world’s 1 billion unemployed
• Provide products and services that meet basic needs (food, shelter, water, energy) for a population of over 7 billion rapidly growing toward 9 billion
• Drastically reduce waste (According to Paul Hawken et al.’s book Natural Capitalism, 99% of everything produced in the USA is in the waste stream within 6 months!!)
• Reduce throughputs of energy and materials by factor of 10 (or more likely a factor of 20)
• Operate on a low carbon basis that will allow us to reduce GHG’s approx 80% by 2050
• Reduce environmental impacts and contribute to environmental conservation/restoration
• Reduce transportation impacts (for workers, inputs, and products)
• Encourage sustainable consumption
• Ensure that all companies and businesses are socially and environmentally responsible
• Achieve “smart” effective regulation.
For me the most hopeful point you make in The Sustainability Mindset is about the growing attention to sustainability in Asia and throughout the developing world. No doubt you are doing what you can to encourage this.
Thanks again Mike!
David
David V. J. Bell
Zahed Yousuf
whilst I agree with most of what has been discussed so far with regards to Sustainability - the question I have is who do want to drive forward this bottom up approach? Do we trust politicians and policy makers - as F Hayek points out it is impossible for central planners to have sufficient knowledge to be able to allocate resources efficently and effectively for the benefit of the whole society. Therefore the power to make decisions and policies should be decentralised to many different individuals who are more closely affected by the decisions. This is consistent with the bottom approach but it will mean the private sector will be required to take a much more pro active role in our decisiosn making process. At present the private sector and the financing of the private sector is not designed in such a way to cope with this responsibility and talking to investment bankers and politicians there does seem to be a change in mindset
Incomplete knowledge is one explanation for why people so often make choices that reflect little sensitivity to sustainability. But, behavioral economics concepts - e.g., hyperbolic discounting, payment decoupling, aspects of prospect theory, and mental accounting theories (which postulate that people have sticky, pre-conceived notions of how much they will spend on different types of goods, like electricity bills) - also seem to explain much of our poor choices.
In recommending how to encourage sustainability mindsets going forward, it is important to acknowledge these behavioral factors. Education and improved values would still be part of the solution, but behavioral explanations suggest that education might focus not just on the consequences of making inefficient decisions but also on the logistics of how to make efficient decisions. Further, it suggests a broader role for public policy - beyond burden sharing, public policy could also improve decision making by introducing channel factors or re-framing efficiency decisions.
PROCYON MUKHERJEE
One cannot agree more that education and values hold the key to the future of the sustainability framework. I am however completely influenced by the Swiss example of pricing a common good at all fairness that reflects not only the opportunity costs but also the true long term value that it should command keeping in view the sustainability stand point. Water may be abundant in this country but it is priced the highest in relative terms compared to any other country of the world, which is a small example of how it drives behavior towards conservation. This is true for any other facet from handling of wastes to conservation of natural endowments; this element of sacrifice holds the key to the future, a value that is greatly neglected in the currency of consumption on which the world attempts to prosper.
Procyon Mukherjee
Paul A. Myers
If sustainability requires making good collective choices, then meaningful feedback needs to get back into the decision-making process. This requires pricing externalities into economic decisions.
In the US today, and this year's election in particular, huge forces led by billionaire plutocrats are working to negate the processes by which negative consequences feed back into the collective choice processes of American society. Denial, not consequence, is the desired rule.
A major problem in the developed world is that wealth concentration favors extraction of short-term gain at the expense of long-term sustainability. Will democratic processes be able to overcome this force?
Ken Peterson
Well said, Zsolt!
Things never work out in logical fashion as we all know. The horror that will be delivered upon the unsuspecting of the earth will never be equitably shared between the 1 and the 99.
Should there ever, in fact, be a return to earth of the Man who said "care for the meek and the needy," the coming 50 years should be the perfect time.
Zsolt Hermann
I completely agree with the author that the only options we have to change our present human model is education and values of society.
And I also agree that the way it is happening today has very minimal effect on most part of society, especially as the leading layers of society ignore it and if it becomes too close to them discredit even the scientific data showing the ill effects and unsustainable nature of the constant growth model. And since this is the social layer that could truly drive a mass scale global education we are in a dead end. How could we motivate the top layer to buy into this education program changing social values?
Fortunately humans are not above the system of nature, but we are parts of it, bound by its natural laws.
The constant growth model with its way beyond necessity production/consumption requiring outsripping resources is unsustainable because it goes against all the natural laws of living systems, breaking the balance and homeostasis of the system.
Thus we are witnessing a system failure and we see every day that there is no solution, the desperate helpless attempts of our politicians and financial leaders just make our situation even worse making recovery much more difficult.
By now it is quite clear there is no way out using our previous methods and tricks, and it is also clear to most people that this new closed, integral, interdependent system is something we never experienced before.
The crisis and the lack of solution and the growing public anger, global demonstrations could provide the negative motivation, the pinch from the backside moving the leaders out of their comfort zone to consider initiating the global education necessary.
Of course if we are wise and look at the vast data already available we could avoid the negative push from behind, and strat education and changing values before the crisis gets so bad that we all suffer from it from the 1% to the 99%.