COPENHAGEN: Slowly, ever so slowly, Europe is establishing its new political geography. Enlargement of the European Union to include the first batch of applicant countries is now within reach as more and more chapters are closed in the bilateral negotiations. The biggest remaining hurdle concerns the political will among today's EU members to set the actual dates for enlargement.

Later this year, in Prague, NATO's leaders may also give the green light to the next group of new members. So 2001 can be a crucial year in the never-ending story of the creation of a new and better Europe. This is why relations with Russia must also be placed high on Europe's agenda this year.

If you look at the new map of Europe, it is obvious where the focus must be: Northwest Russia already shares borders with both the EU and NATO (a fact often missed by those who argue against "expanding NATO right up to the borders of Russia"). This proximity offers the prospect of friction or, if Europe seizes the moment, the most promising of possibilities for economic growth. After all, Russia's reforms, many of Russia's leading reformers, and President Putin himself all began their careers in St. Petersburg.

The "Northern Dimension," a concept developed during Finland's EU-presidency of two years ago, has been picked up by the present Swedish presidency. On April 9th, foreign ministers from the EU, Russia, and other countries from the Baltic Sea Region will meet in Luxembourg to review implementation of the so-called Northern Dimension Action Plan and provide political guidance for developing this initiative.

An injection of renewed purpose from the EU's political leaders is undoubtedly needed. Such could provide inspiration for the entire region, including its postcommunist countries, where a huge potential for growth exists. The driving force, however, can only be an understanding that EU enlargement must be regarded as a win-win situation for all countries involved directly or indirectly - including Russia.

For Russia has legitimate and undeniable interests at stake. Think of the Kaliningrad-oblast. With Lithuania's independence it was cut off by land from Russia. Soon, it may appear even more isolated to Russians, as Poland and Lithuania enforce the EU's Schengen border rules.

To secure regional stability, Russia must be convinced that all countries have the right to choose the international organisations in which they wish to be members. So Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania cannot be regarded as special Russian "spheres of influence" requiring Russian assent for membership in either the EU or NATO.

Yet, to obtain that kind of understanding, Russia must be able to see its own interests - in particular the economic health of Kaliningrad and Northwest Russia - taken into account as the EU enlarges. So co-operation between Russia and the EU must be extended on many practical issues. Unleashing the potential for growth in the Baltic Sea Region is one powerful way to achieve this end.

Governments and think-tanks in the region are already pointing the way ahead. A recent study presented at the Baltic Development Forum suggested that, if Poland and the three Baltic countries become EU members in 2003 and continue their efforts to catch up economically with the rest of the Union, annual growth in their GDP can be 2-4% higher than the EU-average. In the coming decade, Poland might double its GDP, the Baltic countries increase their GDP by 60%. The benefits of such growth for present regional EU members will more than outweigh the direct budget costs linked to enlargement. So: a win-win situation.

But EU-enlargement alone will not do the trick. A comprehensive strategy is needed to realise the region's full potential. Here Professor Michael Porter of Harvard University has proposed a "Baltic Rim Regional Agenda" to develop an innovative and co-operative mindset to improve the region's business development. In it, private business takes the driver's seat in the economic and political transition. But private business can only meet that challenge if governments are prepared to remove the many barriers that exist to growth and free trade.

In the past, the Baltic Sea Region was one of Europe's most economically dynamic areas. Trade and cultural exchanges flourished. Then came years of Cold War division. Half of the Baltic Sea became an economic dead sea. When Europe's division ended, an opportunity to recreate the Baltic's traditional free movements of people, ideas and merchandise - all of which once contributed mightily to regional prosperity - suddenly appeared.

The importance of seizing this opportunity cannot be overstated. Indeed, Immanuel Kant's old imperative - that trade is peace-making - should not be forgotten. Special resonance is added to this thought by the fact that Kant himself was born in what used to be K”nigsberg, now Russia's Kaliningrad.

Much talk will be heard in coming months: the ministerial meeting in Luxembourg, numerous conferences and seminars around the region, and in September a Baltic summit will be held in St. Petersburg at which political and business leaders will discuss what is needed in order to move ahead. All this talk is essential and good. But it is vital to move quickly beyond rhetoric if we are to deal effectively with Europe's "Northern Dimension." EU enlargement - and the process of involving Russia - must not be slowed by a lack of political will and vision among European leaders.