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El nexo de la tensión

LONDRES – Cada día, el número de habitantes de nuestro planeta  crece en más de 210.000.  Este crecimiento añade un total de 1,5 millones de personas, cada una y todas las semanas del año, lo que aumenta las demandas que se imponen sobre nuestros recursos vitales.

Al mismo tiempo, el mundo se torna cada vez más próspero, y la calidad de vida mejora en casi todas partes. Durante las últimas décadas, se estima que en todo el mundo dos mil millones de personas han elevado sus estándares de vida, lo que los ha llevado a formar parte de la clase media. Este es un logro notable.

Sin embargo, este aumento en curso en cuanto a la prosperidad global también genera tensiones que amenazan con socavar la prosperidad. Llamemos a esto la “paradoja de la prosperidad”.

Se estima que para el año 2030 nuestro mundo necesite proporcionar 30% más agua, 40% más de energía y un 50% más de alimentos para mantenerse a ritmo y satisfacer las crecientes demandas. Además, tendremos que proporcionar dicha energía, agua y alimentos en formas que reduzcan significativamente las emisiones de CO₂.

Abordar cualquiera de estas necesidades de recursos de forma individual sería una tarea inmensa. Sin embargo, el desafío de garantizar un suministro suficiente de agua, energía y alimentos se magnifica exponencialmente debido a los vínculos entre dichas necesidades. Los efectos potenciales del cambio climático influirán en las mencionadas tres necesidades. Por lo tanto, si queremos tener éxito, se debe abordar la  satisfacción de nuestras necesidades de recursos de manera inteligente y al unísono.

La energía, el agua y los alimentos son nuestros recursos más vitales, ya que mantienen la vida misma y suministran los medios para que funcionen nuestras sociedades modernas. Y, ellos forman una red estrechamente entrelazada: casi todas las formas de producción de energía requieren agua, se necesita también energía para trasladar y proporcionar tratamiento al agua, y la producción de alimentos requiere de ambos, tanto de energía como de agua.

Sin embargo, a lo largo y ancho del mundo, se ha llevado a cabo pocos esfuerzos por resolver nuestras necesidades de manera integral. El uso ineficiente de los recursos sigue siendo la norma. En los países en desarrollo – donde se localiza la mayor parte del crecimiento de la población mundial – no se tienen sistemas de gestión de aguas que sean consistentes, y se pierde hasta el 40% de la electricidad debido a que la infraestructura de transporte es deficiente. En el mundo desarrollado también prevalece el desperdicio: por ejemplo, más de un tercio de los alimentos producidos en los Estados Unidos no se comen.

Al mismo tiempo, estamos en una época de una mayor volatilidad económica. Esto, a su vez, genera más volatilidad política, que tiende a impedir el logro de avances en gran escala en los problemas mundiales.

Tenemos que aprender a adaptar nuestros sistemas e instituciones de recursos para hacer frente al nuevo ritmo de cambio y a la incertidumbre. Con ese fin, el año pasado Shell se embarcó en un importante esfuerzo para entender las consecuencias futuras de lo que los científicos denominan el “el nexo de la tensión” de la energía, el agua y los alimentos. Estamos buscando formas innovadoras de aprovechar al máximo los recursos finitos del mundo y  a través de ello garantizar una mayor seguridad con respecto a nuestros suministros vitales de energía, agua y alimenticios.

Por lo tanto, ¿qué pueden hacer las empresas al respecto? La respuesta es una abundancia de cosas. En lugar de esperar a que los gobiernos actúen, las empresas debemos asumir un rol de liderazgo en el suministro de ideas y soluciones. Tenemos que explorar nuevas formas de asociación y colaboración con los gobiernos, las instituciones académicas, los grupos de interés y las empresas fuera de nuestros propios rubros.

Shell recientemente reunió a un pequeño grupo de presidentes ejecutivos que han comprometido la participación de sus empresas en proyectos conjuntos, mismos que puede llegar a demostrar lo que podemos hacer con el fin de mitigar las tensiones relativas a los recursos. Estamos tratando de encontrar formas prácticas de lograr que las economías y los sistemas de recursos a nivel local tengan un grado más alto de resiliencia.

Lo interesante de esta iniciativa es que se trata de empresas de diferentes sectores económicos, no sólo de la industria energética. También estamos colaborando estrechamente con renombrados académicos e investigadores con el fin de desarrollar una metodología de resiliencia. Queremos identificar lo que sí funciona, y luego replicarlo en otros lugares y, posiblemente crear nuevas oportunidades de negocio en el proceso.

Reconocemos que las acciones son más persuasivas que las palabras, por lo que todavía no hemos hablado mucho acerca de esta iniciativa. La misma aún se encuentra en sus inicios, y queremos esperar hasta que logremos algunos resultados.

Tal vez la acumulación de esfuerzos colaborativos como este se convierta en un movimiento de acción colectiva y llegue a ser un éxito de mayor escala. De hecho, este enfoque de “abajo hacia arriba” puede ser más viable y crear más impulso en el largo plazo, si se tiene en cuenta el evidente fracaso de los ambiciosos enfoques “de arriba hacia abajo” que se realizaron durante los últimos años.

Traducido del inglés por Rocío L. Barrientos.

Reprinting material from this Web site without written consent from Project Syndicate is a violation of international copyright law. To secure permission, please contact us.

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  1. Commented

    Nirmalan Dhas

    I meet once again the term ‘prosperity’ and am told that it is increasing. I have no way of commenting on this claim unless I am told exactly what is meant by prosperity. Is it the rich getting richer that is described as prosperity, or the poor becoming poorer that is given this name? Is the projection of the lifestyles of the rich as a goal for the middle classes and the promise to this class of its possible attainment in return for its loyalty in the suppression of the poor and the acceptance of the current status quo what is meant by prosperity? I am told that 2 billion people make up the middle class. This would mean that the better part of 5 billion are locked in poverty and it tells me that the resources of the planet are locked in the grip of a very few and is this what is meant by prosperity? I know that much that can be done is not done because very few can perceive what can be done and yet have no means of accessing the resources required to formulate and set in motion those processes of perceptual modification that may successfully engage this issue, and is this prosperity? What of the possibly large numbers of people who would be able to contribute to the task of addressing the critical issues of our times if they had the resources with which to do so, is the perpetuation of their helplessness what you call prosperity?

    I am told that there is an improvement in the quality of life. I am by no means certain of this. Every day close to 200 species are going extinct. Massive quantities of toxic gases and other materials are released into the planet every day. Our global civilization transforms massive amounts of earth into these toxic products slowly turning our environment into deadly poisons. The Polar Ice caps are melting. The jet-stream has been destabilized and now brings extreme weather volatility. The price of food has risen and continues to rise. The old have begun to outnumber the young and the sick now burden the healthy as a result of the race for immortality. We are becoming aware of the outcome of Rapid Resource Depletion, Pollution and Global Climate Change, Global Monetary Collapse and the increasing incredibility of the Growth Model of Development. If this is what is called an increase in the quality of life then this quality is indeed quite deadly.

    There is nothing called a prosperity paradox. What there is and has been for a while, is a mindless and obsessive generation of desires and an even more mindless and compulsive search for their satisfaction through the consumption of the planet at as fast a rate as possible. This is at the moment the sole objective of the Human Species. There is nothing paradoxical in this behavior. It is clearly a one-way street to disaster and the likely extinction of the human species along with many others.

    The re perception of the world as a dynamic process and the re definition of the objective of the human species as being the perception of its potential and the participation with the world in its eternal evolutionary becoming will permit the formulation and initiation of distribution systems that enables an equitable accessing of resources, the guarantee to all of the basic needs for life and the consequent de linking of access to commodities from access to wages. This may free us to become more fully human and live in ways that enhance the dynamics of the world and give them direction. In this there can be no paradox and hence what I speak of is clearly not what you call ‘prosperity’.

    Food Energy and Water are required for survival of the species but are not enough to ensure the survival of our humanity. To retain and develop our humanness and dignity we need much more than energy, food and water. We need in my opinion, all of the following:
    1. Food and Agricultural Systems
    2. Water Management and Recycling Systems
    3. Health and Social Support Systems
    4. Habitat and Communication Systems
    5. Training and Education Systems
    6. Power Generation Systems
    7. Surgical and Medical Systems
    8. Transport Systems
    9. Emergency Rapid Response Systems
    10. Guidance Systems



    The sustenance and development of these systems require much more than the reduction of Carbon Dioxide and other toxins being emitted by our global civilization or the reduction of the rate at which we consume the resources of earth. They demand perceptual capacities that are able to perceive how these systems can be reconfigured such that they can be sustained without emitting such toxins and while consuming as little as possible of the earth. The cultivation of such perceptual capacities and the facilitation of the emergence of the perceptions that they generate is a task that is little understood and hence not engaged.

    Business can facilitate the work of those who seek to engage this task while at the same time doing what is possible to reduce the toxicity of our currently global civilization and the rapid rate at which we are consuming the limited resources available to us – that is of course if business really wants to do this rather than continue along the principles that it has adopted for so long and continues to.

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