Let me line up the Bears -- Roubini, Krugman, Wolf. A murderers' row of big hitters on the pessimism side.

The US. No one wants to write down the mortgage debt to fair market value so the big engine of the American economy remains stalled. No one wants to do a big public works program and put people to work building something with future economic value. So, Washington simply is not serious about re-starting the American economy. It could, but it won't. 

In Europe, a European-wide spending authority that can deficit spend is required to boost overall demand. But the austerity debate crowds out all discussion of any positive initiatives to grow the overall EU economy. Meanwhile, the Emerging Market economies will eat the Europeans' future lunches on the competitiveness front. The European car is stalled at the bottom of a steep hill. The confidence fairy has not the strength to push it up the hill.

In the Middle East and South Asia, the Israeli-centric American foreign policy will be hobbled by a continuing flow of negative consequences. How do you say in Arabic -- "we are not listening to you"? For 2012, watch the dominos fall into the Islamic republic column across the Muslim world. Higher energy prices will be the pleasant side of this development.

This Keynesian taro card reader is the best contrarian indicator I know of.  He was predicting a meltdown in the housing market at least three years before it occurred, and so were many others.  Since then, he's been consistently wrong in his predictions.  Why anyone pays any attention to him or any other soothsayer is beyond me.

The actions taken by the central bankers are merely a sharing of sandbags to bolster the financial dikes against the rising tide of sovereign debt.  These are at best temporary measures and no one is doing anything to address the rising tide of debt which is a reaction to global wage destruction continuing to occur due to outsourcing, automation and the rising price of oil. These are structural problems which have been undermining the economies of the world for four decades.  If we are to effectively address these, we need to reexamine the myths of "free trade", zero-sum game, austerity-based job creation and the helplessmess of governments to do anything about them.

We still do not dare to look into the mirror and accept where we are.

On the other hand each analysis, future prediction, political speech, or summit sounds more and more like a prayer, repeating mantras desperately but without any assurence or confidence because we know that without a miracle we cannot "achieve robust growth", "upturn", or "recovery".

We are still lacking the honest inspection and admission which is understandable as it would then require a fundamental change in our thinking, attitude and lifestyle.

If we wanted, all the information is avaliable to understand what is happening and where we should be turning to from here, but we still do not want to put the mosaic together.

Even from within this article we could build the picture telling us how much we are interconnected, how much we depend on each other, nobody is independent and nobody can become self sustaining, and still we try to reject these connections, we still try to work against each other based on greedy selfish calculations.

Indeed 2012, and all the following years beyond could provide a very bumpy ride unless we finally accept our place in the overall system of nature, and accept that we have to adapt to the laws around us, which laws are based on mutual responsibility, caring for the whole ahead of self interest, and consumption based on necessities instead of uneccesary and harmful luxuries.

Phyisically, virtually we are already in a closed, interconnected and interdependent network. Now it is time to use this network in a positive manner instead of the destructive way we use it today.

We  must understand that a new attitude toward life is being revealed from all these events and it isn’t about constant and aimless growth. Simply, industry must satisfy basic necessities instead of promoting purposeless hoarding.

Nature is now pushing us toward this, and this pressure will only continue to build. In the past we have always developed by compulsion and we felt this development as desirable because we are inherently egoistic. However, now nature is forcing us to rise to our next human development, which is about rejecting the ego,  which goes against who we are.  Nature is gradually showing us something opposite ourselves and demanding us to change!

Monetize the QE3:....give each voter $30000.00....(3 trillion divided by number of voters). We're borrowing the money anyway...so...give it to the banks who'll sit on it?

Roubini published a report, "The Way Forward", at the New America Foundation in October 2011 with two other co-authors. This proposal is the best thing I've read. It deals with all the significant problems. Here's a summary: Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom because of his prescient prediction of the 2008 recession, released a plan, The Way Forward, at the New America Foundation. This plan has three constructive proposals, called pillars, 1) "a substantial five-to-seven year public investment program that repairs the nation's crumbling public infrastructure, 2) "a debt restructuring program that is truly national in scope, addressing the (intimately related) banking and real estate and financial asset price bubbles" and 3) " global reforms that can begin the process of restoring balance to the world economy". Without a trade balancing remedy, all reforms are futile. In my opinion discussion begins with an understanding of this proposal. It covers the entire scene and presents an illuminating construct for economic recovery. But many will disagree about the medicine needed. In Nov. 1999 there were 109.7 million private sector workers in the U.S., and in Nov. 2011, 12 years later, there were also 109.7 million private sector workers. There was a net zero growth in private sector jobs. This should tell most people that we are in a serious semi-depression. My blog is http://benL8.blogspot.com 

Gamesmith94134: global finance’s Supply-chain Revolution

“Open feedback mechanisms ensure a supply chain’s ability to respond to a changing environment, but, in the case of financial supply chains, feedback mechanisms can amplify shocks until the whole system blows up.” It was because there is no firewall available during the crisis, and the pipeline was open with few operators in the financial control like Mr. Sheng said, also, there is even fewer currencies like Euro-dollar only was available in most transactions, even though the public funds like sovereignty debts were being privatized in the open trade, and it create the explosion by volume in sum of money was credited. Firewalls I took off the technical terminology means there is no safety transitory zone established physically, that our financial system allowed the flow in the supply chain freely as the computerized transaction allowed, and there is less time available for reexamination on lack of control, source of origin, birth of credits. 

Especially, when the parties took the international reserves for granted that Fed and ECB cut it interest rates to its minimal for the non-inflationary measure that many would consider money are free if they can beat the time. Generally, the 22 players turned the international financial market into their casino. When their governments were the ones who called to upbeat its economies from the recession after the expansion of the debts hitting it fiscal ceiling, and the slow down cut their productivity in near recession. At the same time, the rigid exchange rate went lopsided that created the tension between the debtor and creditor. It exploded.

At present, the financial system must evolve itself with firewalls that stop contagion of the collateral damage over the money with no backing, and shrink the pool of cash for credit lending. Some might call it deleverage of the past 20 years mishaps, or change of climate in our global financial that the supply-chain must stop and check itself; besides, most of us would know by now that money supply and productivity are not on the same parallel at certain point under the influence of inflation an deflation. Without the assurance of the balance payment or imbalance of its exchange rates, the supply-chain will reverse itself.

Perhaps, I like it better if the sovereignty debt and private investment should not be classified as same in enjoying the low interest rate, that sovereignty debt should be handled separately by the Central Banks and World Bank if it does affect the exchange rate when evaluated by IMF for it answer to lack of control.

Transfer Unions must be established to void unsafe transaction and the Trans-continental Zoning to confirm the source of the origin on all transactions when the transaction is registered to enter its zones, or cut hot cashes that undervaluing ones currency from another that influences the international currency exchange rate. Besides, I see the floating rate system is a joke if it put sovereignty in defensive; and it should go with its yardstick like performance that values at each quarters.

Finally, international banks are “too big to fall” should became a legend only, and they must be downsized that international is not licensed to evade sovereignty. There are more of reforms available in regional account and obey to safety net where it allows. Perhaps, if the banker can purchase these sovereignty bonds and metro bonds from the central bank like FED or ECB instead of chasing the wild goose in the open market; the general public can have some credits available for doing business.

If someone question on the equities dealing among the banks, why only the politicians who talk over the policy on financial and there is no financial police system to oversight the banking as a whole. I think the United Nations Security Council can build a better division on financial security than G7 or G20, and it is inclusive for the globalized finance and my past experience tells me so. Evolve or not, we may stand by and watch the outcome of our present crisis and it not over yet till everyone would feel safe from hegemony through these firewalls. If some suggest cooperation from community in forgiving ones’ debt, it would be worse than my New Year project in losing weight every year, and I have been laughing at myself all my life. Without firewall in safeguard one’s wealth, each would isolate itself from contagion for a long, long time.

May the Buddha bless you?

Gamesmith94134: global finance’s Supply-chain Revolution

“Open feedback mechanisms ensure a supply chain’s ability to respond to a changing environment, but, in the case of financial supply chains, feedback mechanisms can amplify shocks until the whole system blows up.” It was because there is no firewall available during the crisis, and the pipeline was open with few operators in the financial control like Mr. Sheng said, also, there is even fewer currencies like Euro-dollar only was available in most transactions, even though the public funds like sovereignty debts were being privatized in the open trade, and it create the explosion by volume in sum of money was credited. Firewalls I took off the technical terminology means there is no safety transitory zone established physically, that our financial system allowed the flow in the supply chain freely as the computerized transaction allowed, and there is less time available for reexamination on lack of control, source of origin, birth of credits. 

Especially, when the parties took the international reserves for granted that Fed and ECB cut it interest rates to its minimal for the non-inflationary measure that many would consider money are free if they can beat the time. Generally, the 22 players turned the international financial market into their casino. When their governments were the ones who called to upbeat its economies from the recession after the expansion of the debts hitting it fiscal ceiling, and the slow down cut their productivity in near recession. At the same time, the rigid exchange rate went lopsided that created the tension between the debtor and creditor. It exploded.

At present, the financial system must evolve itself with firewalls that stop contagion of the collateral damage over the money with no backing, and shrink the pool of cash for credit lending. Some might call it deleverage of the past 20 years mishaps, or change of climate in our global financial that the supply-chain must stop and check itself; besides, most of us would know by now that money supply and productivity are not on the same parallel at certain point under the influence of inflation an deflation. Without the assurance of the balance payment or imbalance of its exchange rates, the supply-chain will reverse itself.

Perhaps, I like it better if the sovereignty debt and private investment should not be classified as same in enjoying the low interest rate, that sovereignty debt should be handled separately by the Central Banks and World Bank if it does affect the exchange rate when evaluated by IMF for it answer to lack of control.

Transfer Unions must be established to void unsafe transaction and the Trans-continental Zoning to confirm the source of the origin on all transactions when the transaction is registered to enter its zones, or cut hot cashes that undervaluing ones currency from another that influences the international currency exchange rate. Besides, I see the floating rate system is a joke if it put sovereignty in defensive; and it should go with its yardstick like performance that values at each quarters.

Finally, international banks are “too big to fall” should became a legend only, and they must be downsized that international is not licensed to evade sovereignty. There are more of reforms available in regional account and obey to safety net where it allows. Perhaps, if the banker can purchase these sovereignty bonds and metro bonds from the central bank like FED or ECB instead of chasing the wild goose in the open market; the general public can have some credits available for doing business.

If someone question on the equities dealing among the banks, why only the politicians who talk over the policy on financial and there is no financial police system to oversight the banking as a whole. I think the United Nations Security Council can build a better division on financial security than G7 or G20, and it is inclusive for the globalized finance and my past experience tells me so. Evolve or not, we may stand by and watch the outcome of our present crisis and it not over yet till everyone would feel safe from hegemony through these firewalls. If some suggest cooperation from community in forgiving ones’ debt, it would be worse than my New Year project in losing weight every year, and I have been laughing at myself all my life. Without firewall in safeguard one’s wealth, each would isolate itself from contagion for a long, long time.

May the Buddha bless you?

Thanks all for your words.  Now get back to work.  In the time you spent reading this article the Chinese have copied another 12,000 products, bought 850,000 hectares of foreign land, and completed two railway lines.

Pyranha,

Our economy was ruined by counterfeiters, right? Catch them what we can, Pyranha. Don’t blame the Chinese. House over China is four time more expensive than ours because Americans buy their houses at 0.25% with our FED, Chinese are just cheap. They wrecked their bullet train and we cancelled ours for our politicians use the budget for traffic congestion and its price went up three times. So, what is the heck about two railways? We just smarter to let Chinese to policing the counterfeiters, and we don’t need trains and we have oil and gas, plenty of it. Nero, where is your harp?

The reference to corporate performance is apt and is right that it is the only ray of hope that belies the tragedy in the rest of the economy. Therefore the ray of hope lies in furthering the cause of this performance, which unfortunately cannot be met with the constancy of purpose that many had instituted in terms of leveraging the low cost options. The focus invariably must shift to creating products and markets that does not exist today and by creating a supply chain that can meet these demands in an economic manner; the incentives must be designed to enable this act.

Procyon Mukherjee