Recent comments by Jorge Simao

• Violence and Innovation

  Incentive creates innovation -- the insurance that the rewards of the innovation return back to the innovator. This is marginally related to violence, but more to the socio-political and economical model.
  It's an interesting point of the author, specially for being non-intuitive. (And yes well written). However, to be credible it would have to be backed by more detailed statistics, rather than just anecdotal cases studies. The example of Switzerland (and possible others), self-contradicts the whole article, to the point that it losses credibility. Any way, good work in laying out your innovative, and yet non violent, perspective.

• Bulgaria’s Revolt Against Consensus

  Great post!!
  These points could probably be applied equally to many other countries in EU, specially in the south!
  The next step, is: how to create the "computational government" that people want...times change, people change, and EU and national govs are still building and trying to safe and old project...

• America’s Trouble with China

  Great post...Dallas...well said...(even if a bit poetic :o)

• Saving General Petraeus

  Really bright man foresee events long before they happen.
  Petraeus being the wise general he was supposed to be, should have realized that accepting to work/participate in biography book with a person that he considered physically/intellectually attractive and having very private meetings in a "far distant land" would create the conditions to promote an extra-marital affair. Being a senior person and a experienced general he should have seen it in his mind and change the course of developments in due time.
  By not foreseeing the events and/or having foresee it but not change the course actions, he proved that after all he was not the master-mind of war and security that he claimed to be and made everybody to believe.
  If I was president, and he was working in my army, knowing about the issue, I would have suggested him to talk with his wife in private, immediately terminate the extra-marital relationship, or simply resign.
  FBI vs. CIA rivalry also did on help president Obama being the great president that he also should have been in this case too.

• The Other Financial Crisis

  Good comment, Paul!
  The problem with government driven demand, is that being great in principle is sub-optimal in practice -- as the gov. can not really know if an investment of x$ will produce a growth >x%. Thus lots of wast can happen. Also to get the x$ in the first place gov. needs to tax it to business and people -- which reduces competitiveness and demand, which as the goal in the first place.
  An additional problem is effects of (implicit) corruption or favoritism, in which money is spend in projects that favor more a small (semi-corrupt) elite rather the the average man.
  An alternative approach, it for the state can inject more money in the system, directly or implicit with lending more -- ie. quantitive easing, but this tends to depreciate the currency (lower the exchange rate) which makes imports more expensive and increases inflation, which is usually a problem.
  The first approach is bad because taxes tend to hit harder more the common man, and may increase unemployment and kill demand. The second approach distort the markets, and favors more banks and financial institutions.
  So, as I see it, the solution is neither credit and banking institutions nor too much state investment. The state should simple setup regulations that allow small companies and free enterprise to growth organically. Moreover, the state should impose very strict restrictions on max. interest rate banks and financial institutions put end-users (business and consumer) -- e.g. if it lends at <1% is should impose a max end-user interest rate of max. 5%.
  But, in practice, neither of these two things happen. Political elites are too inter-winded with economical and financial ones.
  Even in democracy, societies are not driven by rational/scientific analysis of best practices and outcomes, but simply by struggle between interests groups -- with limited ability or motivation to pursue the goal of the commons.
  Smart and virtuous people and business thrive not because of the state or financial institutions, but rather in spite of them.
  Personally, it took me almost 40years of age to learn to be simultaneously realistic and not fatalist about life. :o)