Good article! However, I would suggest that there is one BIG element not considered in the article - rapidly accelerating direct connections between people at all levels of society globally. As the connections inextricably increase, so too does the need for more long range globally scaled vision, purpose and direction. My reasons and solution here - http://bit.ly/XS6M8C
If it sets aside the Euro, it will become a third world country. It's only solution is to 'federalize' the EU so that it is part of a larger more competitive market base. They know this to be true, but the reluctance (and challenge) is to convince the population of the state of France that to be part of the Federal system in the EU, including the currency and financial systems, that such a move is correct.
These are good points Nouriel. My concern is that we are not looking forward with a long range purpose or vision, but are rather expending energy de-constructing currnet and recent historical problems. This is all very good, but when we put the pieces back together after de-construction, we tend to do so linerarly. The economy though is complex and non-linerar and requires a metacognitive shift in thinking.
Though I agree that there is a need to study systemic patterns, as our world becomes more and more interconnected beyond traditional borders the need also increases for a big visionary purpose or project toward which vast segments of our GLOBAL society can direct effort and energy.
Recently, I did a study on three big projects from the past to look for common characteristics. Those three projects were the Panama Canal, the Manhattan Project, and Kennedy's Landing a man on the Moon project. There are two parts. The first part linked here is presentation. The second part is the full report linked in the presentation.
http://bit.ly/XS6M8C Human Complexity-Creating Sustainable Local Growth
Thanks! Tim Williamson firstname.lastname@example.org