VisitYear in Review 2012

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  A Year on the Brink by Joseph E. Stiglitz

  The two main surprises in 2012 were the slowdown in emerging markets, which was slightly sharper and more widespread than anticipated, and Europe’s embrace of some truly remarkable reforms – though still far short of what is needed. Looking to 2013, the biggest global economic risks are there and in the US.

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  The Future Global Economy by Christine Lagarde

  A world that is bound closely together must be a world that works closely together if it is to prosper together. We are multiple players, but we are engaged in a single game – a game that must be cooperative, not simply competitive.

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  The Emerging Economies’ Eurozone Crisis by Kaushik Basu

  For emerging economies, medium- to long-term growth prospects are bright. Easing short-term jitters will require a clear and credible program for returning high-income economies, especially those in Europe, to a sustainable fiscal path.

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  Brazil’s Economic Revolution by Guido Mantega

  In 2012, Brazil, beset by fallout from the global economic crisis, undertook bold measures to reinvigorate growth, including interest-rate reductions, tax reform, and steps aimed at stimulating private investment. More important, the government’s policies will have a permanent – indeed, revolutionary – impact on Brazil’s economy.

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  The Optimist’s Timeline by Bill Gates

  A decade ago, many people believed that the proliferation of mobile devices in Africa would mean a short leap to digital empowerment. But digital empowerment is a long and ongoing process, and the mere existence of cellular technology does not immediately change how poor people meet their basic needs.

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  Emerging World Rising by Jim O'Neill

  The US will face recurring challenges with the “fiscal cliff” until financial markets pressure policymakers into more radical deficit reduction. But, despite this and associated growth disappointments, the global economy will perform better in 2013 than many people expect, owing to emerging countries' rising share of global output.

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  More Skin in the Game in 2013 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  In an opaque system, operators have an incentive to hide risk, taking upside without downside. And there is no possible risk management method that can replace having skin in the game – particularly when informational opacity is compounded by informational asymmetry.

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  Europe’s Crisis of Values by George Soros

  Far from being a voluntary association of equals, the euro is now held together by hierarchy and harsh discipline. Instead of European fraternity and solidarity, hostile national stereotypes proliferate, giving rise to extremist forces that gained ground throughout the continent in 2012.

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  The Bilateral Threat to Free Trade by Peter Sutherland

  The Doha Round of global trade talks appears to have died this year, almost without a whimper. While a small portion of the project may be saved, the essential reality is that this is a unique failure in the history of multilateral trade negotiations, which have transformed the global economy since World War II.

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  The Great Bank Debate by John Vickers

  Structural reform of banks does not solve all problems, but, at least for the UK and the rest of Europe, it is a key part of the overall reform package for the financial sector. Now, five years on from the start of the crisis, the debate about how to achieve a more stable, loss-absorbent banking system has finally begun.

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  The Great Bank Escape by Anat Admati

  Corporate decisions taken in the name of shareholder value often benefit only those whose wealth is closely tied to the firm's profits, and may be harmful to many shareholders. If policymakers and regulators do not strengthen their reform efforts, taxpayers and shareholders – not bankers – will suffer the consequences of the next crisis.

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  Asia’s Hard Road by Haruhiko Kuroda, Changyong Rhee

  Next year will present significant challenges and new responsibilities – political, economic, and social – for developing Asia. The path to sustainable, inclusive economic growth will be difficult, but it will also entail exciting opportunities for Asia and for the rest of the world.

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  Is State Capitalism Winning? by Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson

  Avatars of liberal capitalism like the US and the UK continued to perform anemically in 2012, while many countries that rely on state capitalism have not only grown rapidly and steadily over the last several decades, but have also weathered recent economic storms with surprising ease. So, is it time to update the economics textbooks?

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  Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond by Shinzo Abe

  Peace, stability, and freedom of navigation in the Pacific Ocean are inseparable from peace, stability, and freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean. Japan, as one of the oldest sea-faring democracies in Asia, should play a greater role – alongside Australia, India, and the US – in preserving the common good in both regions.

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  Crisis and Transformation by Abdullah Gul

  Turkey’s immediate neighborhood will continue to dominate the global policy agenda in 2013. To its north, Europe is at a crossroads, with ramifications that extend well beyond the confines of the EU, while an irreversible quest for dignity, freedom, democracy, and peace is altering the political landscape to its south.

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  America’s Pacific Rebalance by Leon E. Panetta

  The US military has entered a period of historic change after more than a decade of war following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The key change is a strategic "rebalance" toward the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting its countries' central role for global security and prosperity in the twenty-first century.

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  The Last Guerrillas by Juan Manuel Santos

  The Colombian government is committed to ending five decades of internal armed conflict by any means possible. The talks currently underway between the government and the FARC have the potential to bring the violence to an end, bolstering Colombian development efforts and contributing to regional peace and stability.

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  A Year of Reckoning for France and Europe by Pierre Moscovici

  France’s economic performance has been lackluster during the past ten years, particularly with respect to competitiveness, debt sustainability, public spending, and the labor market. But the government has vowed to make significant progress in each of these areas over the next five years – beginning in 2013.

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  The Moral Limits of Markets by Michael J. Sandel

  Almost without realizing it, we have drifted from having market economies to becoming market societies. A market economy is a tool for organizing productive activity, while a market society is a place where almost everything – from our bodies to our politics – is up for sale.

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  How to Win in the Middle East by Turki bin Faisal al-Saud

  Analysts the world over are assessing the situation in the Middle East in 2012 in terms of the region’s "winners" and "losers." But, in the bloody, hostile miasma of the Middle East, being a “winner” in any sense of the word is fallacious.

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  Weimar 2013? by Mark Mazower

  In Europe, where national economic failure once led to the collapse of democracy itself, people are now asking if it could happen again. Communism and fascism may have been discredited since then, but we should not be complacent merely because we cannot imagine the alternatives.

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  Ground the Drones in 2013 by Imran Khan

  Although 2012 marked the beginning of the end of US and NATO forces’ presence in Afghanistan, reliance on air strikes by unmanned drones escalated. Now that Barack Obama no longer faces the pressure of campaigning, he would be wise to use the first year of his new term to end America's indiscriminate and barbaric attacks.

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  The History of Russia’s Future by Nina L. Khrushcheva

  The harsh policies that have allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to maintain a stranglehold on Russia have ensured the country’s decline. As 2013 begins, Russia is back on its treadmill of history, treating the past as prologue – and thus wasting its resources and blighting its people's lives.

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  The Enduring Egypt-Iran Divide by Mehdi Khalaji

  The Muslim Brotherhood’s ascent to power in the aftermath of Egypt revolution in 2011 initially inspired hope of renewed diplomatic relations with Iran. But, despite shared ideological principles, significant political obstacles continue to inhibit bilateral cooperation.

• In 2012: The Year of the Locusts, Project Syndicate’s special Year in Review, the world’s leading economists, policymakers, political leaders, strategic thinkers, and public intellectuals provide an exclusive, sharp-eyed look at the last 12 months – and compelling analyses of the trends that will shape events in 2013.