Wednesday, October 1, 2014
9

欧洲的价值观危机

纽约——仇外心理和极端主义是深刻社会危机所表现出来的症状。2012年,极右翼的金色黎明党在希腊议会选举中赢得21个席位,右翼的尤比克党在我的祖国匈牙利站稳脚跟,而国民阵线的马林·勒庞在法国总统选举中得到支持。右翼力量得到的支持越来越强无可避免地得出一个结论:欧洲大陆长期的财政危机正在威胁到欧盟本身的价值。

当还停留在美好愿望的时候,欧盟这个有诱惑力的想法激发了包括我在内很多人的想象力。我将其视为开放社会的化身——主权国家联盟为追求共同利益自愿放弃部分主权组合在一起。它们拥有共同的历史,法国大革命自由、平等、博爱的口号留下了不可磨灭的传统。以大革命传统为基础,各会员国不受任何国家或民族的控制,在平等的基础上缔结联盟。

欧元危机已经彻底改变了欧盟的性质。欧元区不再是自愿组成联盟,仅仅靠严厉的规则才得以勉强维持。欧盟各国已经不再平等,相反却等级森严,核心国家任意决定政策,而外围国家只能俯首听命。联盟各国已不再团结友爱,而是相互间充满了敌意。

一体化进程的倡导者是一小群有远见的政治家,他们信奉开放社会原则,践行卡尔·波普尔所谓的“渐进式社会工程”。他们清楚不可能尽善尽美,因此制定了有限度的目标和确定的时间表——籍此来调动进一步采取行动的政治意愿。他们清楚地知道目标实现后其不足之处必定会很快暴露,进而敦促采取进一步的措施。欧洲煤钢共同体正是通过这种方式逐步转化为欧盟。

法德曾是相关行动的领导者。随着苏维埃帝国的解体,德国领导人意识到只有在加强欧洲团结的背景下,才有可能实现德国的统一。他们也准备付出巨大的牺牲去实现这一目标。谈判过程中德国人愿意比别人多些付出少些收获,以此来推动协议的达成。

当时,德国政治家宣称德国不存在独立外交政策,只服从统一的欧洲目标。这一姿态戏剧化加速了欧洲一体化进程,1992年签订《马斯特里赫特条约》以及1999年引入欧元令欧洲一体化达到了高潮。之后是一段时间的整合(包括2002年欧元纸币和硬币开始流通)。

而后2008年起源于美国的崩溃导致欧洲比其他地方蒙受了更大的损失。决策者在雷曼兄弟倒台后宣布绝不允许其他有系统重要性的金融机构崩溃,而这需要以国家信用代替已陷入冰冻的市场。

但此后不久,德国总理安格拉·默克尔称欧洲无法统一提供上述担保,而必须由联盟各国独立提供。这项决策标志着欧元危机的开始,因为监管当局和金融市场此前均未意识到的单一货币缺陷就此暴露——直到今天我们还未彻底认清上述缺陷的严重性。

欧洲央行成立后,各成员国政府债券有可能出现违约。以本国货币发行债券的发达国家不会有违约风险,因为印钞权总掌握在他们手中。他们的货币可能贬值,但根本不可能出现违约。

相比之下,以外币借款的欠发达国家可能耗尽全部的外汇储备。财政危机重创希腊时,金融界突然发现欧元区成员国的位置已经等同于发展中国家。

欧元危机和1982年的拉美债务危机有着很强的相似性,当时国际货币基金组织为挽救国际金融体系借贷给负债国的资金刚够让他们避免违约。但国际货币基金组织勒令这些国家实行严格的紧缩政策,并因此将他们推入长期的经济萧条之中。拉丁美洲失去了十年的宝贵时光。

今天德国所扮演的角色与当时的国际货币基金组织如出一辙。虽然时过境迁,但效果却完全相同。欧元危机将金融体系推向了破产的边缘,而解决方法是向希腊等国提供刚够避免违约的借款并强制其采取严格的紧缩政策。

结果导致整个欧元区被割裂为债权国和债务国,并由债权国掌控经济政策。具体而言包括以德国为首的核心国家和负债累累的周边各国。债权国对周边国家执行的严格紧缩政策固化了欧元区核心和外围国家之间的区隔。经济情况持续恶化,致使民众遭受到巨大的痛苦。无辜、沮丧、愤怒的紧缩政策受害者为仇恨言论、仇外心理和各种形式的极端主义提供了肥沃的土壤。

因此原本旨在保护金融体系和欧元的政策正致使欧盟转向开放社会的对立面。欧元融资需求和欧盟政治目标间存在着显而易见的冲突。资金需求可以藉由复制1980年代全球经济所践行的规则以及将欧元区割裂为核心及外围国家来加以实现,但这与开放社会的矛盾根本无法调和。

我们有办法修改欧元保护政策来满足欧盟的政治目标。比如可以用欧元债券来替换各国政府债券。但只要矛盾依然存在,就应该优先满足政治目标。遗憾的是情况并不是这样。财政问题异常紧迫——吸引了政治家们的关注。欧洲领导人如此专注于眼前的危机,已经来不及思考自己行动的长远后果。结果是他们继续走一条固化核心及周边分歧的道路。

绝不能允许这样的暗淡前景变成现实。过去的欧盟被视为团结合作的工具。但今天,仅仅出于迫不得已的需要各国才勉强维持结盟。这不是我们需要或者希望的欧洲。我们必须扭转这种无法容忍的转变。我们必须想方设法重新找到激发欧洲想象力的团结精神和共同价值观。

翻译:Xu Binbin

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  1. CommentedAnonymous HopefulSkeptic

    There is a little known history about how the European Coal and Steel Community was formed. Declassified documents show that the elite members of the Third Reich planned for a Fourth Reich before World War II had ended. The Fourth Reich was planned to become an economic empire. The document is real. All one has to do is take the number "
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179902/Revealed-The-secret-report-shows-Nazis-planned-Fourth-Reich--EU.html
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_LeBor
    http://ia700401.us.archive.org/20/items/Ew-pa128Report/Ew-pa128Report.pdf

    I did an advanced google search for the Red House Report and came up
    with this link which shows that a FOIA request for Document EW-PA 128 did in fact occur (In google advanced search, I limited search resultsto pdf files only, to government websites only, and to the exact
    phrase, "EW-PA 128"), so the document is real:
    (see roughly page 26 ... use the find function (control + F) and type in EW-PA 128): http://www.dod.gov/pubs/foi/administration_and_Management/FOIA_Logs/FOIALog_FY01.pdf
    http://www.cuttingthroughthematrix.com/articles/Intelligence_Report_EW-Pa_128.html

  2. Commentedstephen swanson

    Mr Soros is blinded and hostage to an unworkable ideology that does fails to account for unsustainable state policies, bloated bureaucricies, choking labor and product/market regulations, huge unit labor cost differentials, corruption and state sponsored cronyism. Why should Germany further assist Greece when the latter persistently fails to correct systemic tax evasion and implement a suite of promised reforms?

  3. Commenteddonna jorgo

    right ..but i think we have to see in diffrent prissme..because if some emigrant come from Pakistan or AF or from middle weast anyway..they have to spend 3-5000$ SO for the level how they live there this money is enough ..my logic go WHY? ..MAYBE SOME ????religion reason wanted to make mix ..regions' for others intreses?
    thank you

  4. CommentedCarol Maczinsky

    First you criticise Xenophobia of the population in a paternalistic manner, while you continue to fuel anti-German sentiment and crisis blame games focussed on creditor nations. As someone involved in finance you should know better that it is misleading and unprincipled.

  5. CommentedCarol Maczinsky

    Go and read the European treaties before you spread a false Merkel bashing narrative. Despite Karl Poppers vision there is the other great tradition of enlightenment.

  6. CommentedRené Costa

    Yes, eurobonds are certainly one of the measures to get back the euro on track. Indeed, it is ridiculous to have euro-governments issuing bonds in a single currency when their economy, their fiscal policy and their labor market are not integrated. The impossibility to devaluate has not been compensated with the large variations of interests on bonds. Therefore, the emission of eurobonds would be welcome only when all existing sovereign debts are paid back at their market value.
    Ren´¢e Costa

  7. CommentedMark Simmelkjaer

    Interesting article highlighting the rise of extremism caused by the current economic tumult of the EU that harkens back to the events leading up to WWII. Then rampent inflation and an ill-conceived treaty of versailles were involved. Now, an EU arrangement that, according to Soros, exposes EU countries to default on their sovereign debt because of their inability to "print" their way out of trouble. A problem once associated only with developing countries that issued debt in foreign currencies.

    -Mark Simmelkjaer

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